Prediction 4191
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso do Sul |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=MS (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 145.0 | 254.0 | 341.0 | 434.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 171.0 | 294.0 | 394.0 | 501.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 176.0 | 306.0 | 411.0 | 524.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 188.0 | 327.0 | 439.0 | 561.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.0 | 223.0 | 382.0 | 511.0 | 652.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 128.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.0 | 258.0 | 436.0 | 583.0 | 743.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 160.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 65.0 | 310.0 | 519.0 | 692.0 | 880.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 154.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 60.0 | 304.0 | 513.0 | 687.0 | 878.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 168.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 67.0 | 328.0 | 553.0 | 741.0 | 948.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 62.0 | 319.0 | 543.0 | 731.0 | 938.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 122.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.0 | 260.0 | 455.0 | 618.0 | 799.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 123.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 263.0 | 461.0 | 630.0 | 815.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 263.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 43.0 | 122.0 | 493.0 | 822.0 | 1101.0 | 1411.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 342.0 | 5.0 | 32.0 | 72.0 | 169.0 | 625.0 | 1033.0 | 1380.0 | 1765.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 417.0 | 21.0 | 53.0 | 100.0 | 214.0 | 753.0 | 1238.0 | 1652.0 | 2114.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 506.0 | 40.0 | 77.0 | 132.0 | 266.0 | 904.0 | 1480.0 | 1974.0 | 2525.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 571.0 | 53.0 | 94.0 | 155.0 | 304.0 | 1017.0 | 1665.0 | 2221.0 | 2844.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 632.0 | 65.0 | 110.0 | 176.0 | 338.0 | 1121.0 | 1837.0 | 2453.0 | 3144.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 708.0 | 80.0 | 130.0 | 203.0 | 382.0 | 1254.0 | 2056.0 | 2747.0 | 3523.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 720.0 | 81.0 | 131.0 | 206.0 | 388.0 | 1280.0 | 2103.0 | 2814.0 | 3616.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 818.0 | 101.0 | 156.0 | 240.0 | 444.0 | 1449.0 | 2381.0 | 3188.0 | 4098.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 885.0 | 113.0 | 173.0 | 262.0 | 482.0 | 1568.0 | 2578.0 | 3456.0 | 4448.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 935.0 | 122.0 | 185.0 | 278.0 | 510.0 | 1658.0 | 2731.0 | 3666.0 | 4723.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 968.0 | 127.0 | 192.0 | 288.0 | 527.0 | 1720.0 | 2838.0 | 3815.0 | 4920.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 971.0 | 126.0 | 190.0 | 287.0 | 527.0 | 1729.0 | 2860.0 | 3850.0 | 4972.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 960.0 | 122.0 | 185.0 | 281.0 | 519.0 | 1715.0 | 2846.0 | 3837.0 | 4962.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 944.0 | 117.0 | 179.0 | 274.0 | 508.0 | 1693.0 | 2816.0 | 3802.0 | 4923.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 884.0 | 103.0 | 162.0 | 251.0 | 472.0 | 1594.0 | 2662.0 | 3601.0 | 4669.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 791.0 | 83.0 | 136.0 | 216.0 | 417.0 | 1438.0 | 2413.0 | 3271.0 | 4249.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 786.0 | 80.0 | 133.0 | 213.0 | 412.0 | 1432.0 | 2409.0 | 3269.0 | 4252.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 695.0 | 61.0 | 108.0 | 180.0 | 359.0 | 1278.0 | 2160.0 | 2939.0 | 3829.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 534.0 | 27.0 | 65.0 | 122.0 | 265.0 | 1001.0 | 1709.0 | 2335.0 | 3051.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 392.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 72.0 | 183.0 | 757.0 | 1311.0 | 1801.0 | 2363.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 324.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 47.0 | 143.0 | 639.0 | 1118.0 | 1544.0 | 2031.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 255.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 103.0 | 520.0 | 924.0 | 1283.0 | 1694.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 227.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 87.0 | 472.0 | 846.0 | 1178.0 | 1560.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 192.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 66.0 | 411.0 | 747.0 | 1045.0 | 1389.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 182.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 61.0 | 396.0 | 724.0 | 1017.0 | 1353.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 153.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.0 | 346.0 | 644.0 | 909.0 | 1216.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 129.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 304.0 | 575.0 | 818.0 | 1098.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 272.0 | 524.0 | 749.0 | 1010.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 237.0 | 466.0 | 672.0 | 910.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 233.0 | 461.0 | 665.0 | 903.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 77.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 216.0 | 433.0 | 629.0 | 857.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 209.0 | 422.0 | 614.0 | 838.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 184.0 | 381.0 | 560.0 | 767.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 199.0 | 408.0 | 597.0 | 817.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 180.0 | 376.0 | 554.0 | 761.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 203.0 | 416.0 | 609.0 | 835.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 202.0 | 416.0 | 610.0 | 837.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 210.0 | 431.0 | 631.0 | 866.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 209.0 | 430.0 | 630.0 | 865.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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