Prediction 4192
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=MT (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 205.0 | 29.0 | 48.0 | 74.0 | 127.0 | 310.0 | 436.0 | 529.0 | 622.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 227.0 | 36.0 | 57.0 | 84.0 | 142.0 | 343.0 | 482.0 | 584.0 | 688.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 231.0 | 35.0 | 56.0 | 84.0 | 143.0 | 350.0 | 494.0 | 601.0 | 710.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 238.0 | 36.0 | 57.0 | 86.0 | 147.0 | 362.0 | 513.0 | 625.0 | 740.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 294.0 | 56.0 | 81.0 | 115.0 | 186.0 | 441.0 | 621.0 | 756.0 | 893.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 304.0 | 58.0 | 84.0 | 119.0 | 193.0 | 458.0 | 647.0 | 789.0 | 934.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 354.0 | 75.0 | 104.0 | 144.0 | 227.0 | 530.0 | 746.0 | 909.0 | 1076.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 387.0 | 86.0 | 117.0 | 160.0 | 250.0 | 579.0 | 815.0 | 994.0 | 1178.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 425.0 | 98.0 | 132.0 | 178.0 | 276.0 | 635.0 | 894.0 | 1091.0 | 1293.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 406.0 | 89.0 | 121.0 | 165.0 | 260.0 | 610.0 | 863.0 | 1057.0 | 1255.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 298.0 | 47.0 | 73.0 | 108.0 | 183.0 | 461.0 | 664.0 | 819.0 | 979.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 277.0 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 95.0 | 166.0 | 433.0 | 627.0 | 776.0 | 930.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 680.0 | 182.0 | 233.0 | 301.0 | 450.0 | 1006.0 | 1414.0 | 1728.0 | 2052.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 755.0 | 207.0 | 262.0 | 338.0 | 501.0 | 1116.0 | 1569.0 | 1918.0 | 2280.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 858.0 | 241.0 | 303.0 | 388.0 | 572.0 | 1267.0 | 1782.0 | 2179.0 | 2591.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 934.0 | 266.0 | 332.0 | 424.0 | 623.0 | 1379.0 | 1942.0 | 2376.0 | 2827.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 1044.0 | 301.0 | 375.0 | 477.0 | 698.0 | 1541.0 | 2169.0 | 2656.0 | 3161.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 1118.0 | 324.0 | 403.0 | 511.0 | 747.0 | 1651.0 | 2328.0 | 2852.0 | 3397.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 1147.0 | 331.0 | 412.0 | 523.0 | 766.0 | 1697.0 | 2397.0 | 2940.0 | 3506.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 1093.0 | 310.0 | 387.0 | 493.0 | 726.0 | 1622.0 | 2297.0 | 2822.0 | 3369.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 1130.0 | 320.0 | 400.0 | 510.0 | 750.0 | 1681.0 | 2383.0 | 2931.0 | 3502.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 1087.0 | 303.0 | 380.0 | 486.0 | 719.0 | 1622.0 | 2306.0 | 2839.0 | 3396.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 1110.0 | 309.0 | 387.0 | 495.0 | 733.0 | 1658.0 | 2361.0 | 2909.0 | 3483.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 1114.0 | 308.0 | 386.0 | 495.0 | 734.0 | 1666.0 | 2376.0 | 2931.0 | 3512.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 1019.0 | 274.0 | 346.0 | 447.0 | 668.0 | 1532.0 | 2191.0 | 2707.0 | 3247.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 1103.0 | 300.0 | 378.0 | 486.0 | 724.0 | 1657.0 | 2370.0 | 2929.0 | 3516.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 1104.0 | 299.0 | 377.0 | 485.0 | 723.0 | 1662.0 | 2381.0 | 2945.0 | 3537.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 1080.0 | 289.0 | 365.0 | 471.0 | 705.0 | 1628.0 | 2336.0 | 2892.0 | 3477.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 1016.0 | 266.0 | 338.0 | 439.0 | 661.0 | 1537.0 | 2211.0 | 2741.0 | 3297.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 1035.0 | 271.0 | 344.0 | 447.0 | 673.0 | 1567.0 | 2257.0 | 2799.0 | 3369.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 967.0 | 248.0 | 316.0 | 413.0 | 625.0 | 1469.0 | 2121.0 | 2634.0 | 3174.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 856.0 | 210.0 | 272.0 | 358.0 | 549.0 | 1307.0 | 1894.0 | 2356.0 | 2843.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 729.0 | 168.0 | 222.0 | 297.0 | 462.0 | 1123.0 | 1634.0 | 2037.0 | 2462.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 583.0 | 120.0 | 164.0 | 226.0 | 363.0 | 909.0 | 1332.0 | 1666.0 | 2019.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 537.0 | 105.0 | 146.0 | 203.0 | 331.0 | 841.0 | 1238.0 | 1551.0 | 1881.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 458.0 | 79.0 | 115.0 | 165.0 | 278.0 | 726.0 | 1075.0 | 1351.0 | 1642.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 422.0 | 67.0 | 100.0 | 148.0 | 252.0 | 673.0 | 1000.0 | 1259.0 | 1532.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 376.0 | 51.0 | 82.0 | 125.0 | 221.0 | 607.0 | 909.0 | 1148.0 | 1401.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 325.0 | 34.0 | 61.0 | 100.0 | 186.0 | 533.0 | 805.0 | 1020.0 | 1249.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 268.0 | 15.0 | 39.0 | 72.0 | 146.0 | 448.0 | 685.0 | 874.0 | 1074.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 237.0 | 5.0 | 27.0 | 57.0 | 126.0 | 404.0 | 624.0 | 799.0 | 984.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 205.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 42.0 | 104.0 | 357.0 | 558.0 | 717.0 | 887.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 199.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 38.0 | 99.0 | 348.0 | 545.0 | 703.0 | 871.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 176.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 27.0 | 84.0 | 315.0 | 499.0 | 646.0 | 802.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 177.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 27.0 | 84.0 | 316.0 | 502.0 | 650.0 | 808.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 156.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 70.0 | 287.0 | 460.0 | 598.0 | 746.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 136.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 56.0 | 257.0 | 417.0 | 546.0 | 683.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 140.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 59.0 | 263.0 | 427.0 | 559.0 | 699.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 142.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 59.0 | 266.0 | 432.0 | 565.0 | 707.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 137.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 56.0 | 259.0 | 423.0 | 554.0 | 695.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 139.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 57.0 | 262.0 | 428.0 | 561.0 | 704.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 142.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 59.0 | 268.0 | 437.0 | 573.0 | 718.0 |
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