Prediction 4193
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Pará |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=PA (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 157.0 | 25.0 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 100.0 | 229.0 | 312.0 | 371.0 | 429.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 141.0 | 16.0 | 30.0 | 49.0 | 87.0 | 210.0 | 289.0 | 346.0 | 402.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 131.0 | 10.0 | 24.0 | 42.0 | 79.0 | 198.0 | 276.0 | 331.0 | 386.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 144.0 | 15.0 | 30.0 | 49.0 | 88.0 | 216.0 | 299.0 | 359.0 | 418.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 156.0 | 20.0 | 35.0 | 56.0 | 97.0 | 233.0 | 322.0 | 386.0 | 450.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 170.0 | 25.0 | 41.0 | 63.0 | 107.0 | 252.0 | 347.0 | 416.0 | 484.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 186.0 | 31.0 | 49.0 | 72.0 | 119.0 | 274.0 | 376.0 | 450.0 | 523.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 191.0 | 33.0 | 51.0 | 74.0 | 122.0 | 282.0 | 387.0 | 463.0 | 539.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 202.0 | 37.0 | 55.0 | 80.0 | 130.0 | 296.0 | 406.0 | 486.0 | 566.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 187.0 | 29.0 | 47.0 | 70.0 | 118.0 | 278.0 | 383.0 | 460.0 | 537.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 139.0 | 7.0 | 22.0 | 41.0 | 81.0 | 215.0 | 303.0 | 368.0 | 433.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 131.0 | 3.0 | 17.0 | 36.0 | 75.0 | 205.0 | 292.0 | 355.0 | 418.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 240.0 | 51.0 | 72.0 | 100.0 | 157.0 | 349.0 | 478.0 | 572.0 | 665.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 286.0 | 71.0 | 94.0 | 126.0 | 191.0 | 411.0 | 558.0 | 666.0 | 773.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 336.0 | 92.0 | 119.0 | 155.0 | 228.0 | 478.0 | 645.0 | 767.0 | 890.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 375.0 | 108.0 | 138.0 | 177.0 | 258.0 | 531.0 | 715.0 | 849.0 | 984.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 431.0 | 132.0 | 165.0 | 209.0 | 300.0 | 606.0 | 813.0 | 964.0 | 1116.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 402.0 | 119.0 | 150.0 | 192.0 | 277.0 | 568.0 | 765.0 | 909.0 | 1053.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 440.0 | 135.0 | 168.0 | 213.0 | 305.0 | 620.0 | 832.0 | 988.0 | 1144.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 397.0 | 115.0 | 146.0 | 188.0 | 273.0 | 563.0 | 759.0 | 903.0 | 1048.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 415.0 | 122.0 | 154.0 | 197.0 | 285.0 | 587.0 | 791.0 | 941.0 | 1091.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 428.0 | 128.0 | 161.0 | 205.0 | 295.0 | 606.0 | 816.0 | 970.0 | 1126.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 433.0 | 129.0 | 162.0 | 207.0 | 298.0 | 612.0 | 825.0 | 982.0 | 1139.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 376.0 | 104.0 | 134.0 | 174.0 | 256.0 | 537.0 | 728.0 | 868.0 | 1009.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 323.0 | 81.0 | 108.0 | 143.0 | 216.0 | 467.0 | 637.0 | 762.0 | 888.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 327.0 | 83.0 | 109.0 | 145.0 | 219.0 | 472.0 | 644.0 | 771.0 | 899.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 303.0 | 72.0 | 97.0 | 131.0 | 201.0 | 441.0 | 604.0 | 724.0 | 845.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 263.0 | 55.0 | 78.0 | 108.0 | 171.0 | 387.0 | 534.0 | 643.0 | 752.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 227.0 | 39.0 | 60.0 | 87.0 | 144.0 | 339.0 | 472.0 | 571.0 | 669.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 239.0 | 44.0 | 66.0 | 94.0 | 153.0 | 356.0 | 494.0 | 596.0 | 699.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 222.0 | 36.0 | 57.0 | 84.0 | 139.0 | 332.0 | 463.0 | 560.0 | 657.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 190.0 | 23.0 | 41.0 | 65.0 | 115.0 | 289.0 | 407.0 | 495.0 | 583.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 152.0 | 7.0 | 22.0 | 44.0 | 87.0 | 238.0 | 341.0 | 418.0 | 494.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 136.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 35.0 | 76.0 | 218.0 | 315.0 | 387.0 | 459.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 121.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 26.0 | 64.0 | 197.0 | 287.0 | 354.0 | 422.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 118.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 24.0 | 62.0 | 193.0 | 282.0 | 349.0 | 415.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 50.0 | 171.0 | 254.0 | 315.0 | 377.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 49.0 | 169.0 | 252.0 | 313.0 | 375.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 89.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 40.0 | 154.0 | 232.0 | 290.0 | 348.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 142.0 | 216.0 | 272.0 | 327.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 144.0 | 219.0 | 275.0 | 331.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 83.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 36.0 | 147.0 | 223.0 | 279.0 | 336.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 153.0 | 231.0 | 289.0 | 348.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 92.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 42.0 | 159.0 | 239.0 | 298.0 | 358.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 91.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 41.0 | 157.0 | 237.0 | 296.0 | 355.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 153.0 | 232.0 | 290.0 | 349.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 143.0 | 218.0 | 274.0 | 331.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 137.0 | 211.0 | 266.0 | 321.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 140.0 | 215.0 | 270.0 | 326.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 73.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 134.0 | 207.0 | 261.0 | 315.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 137.0 | 211.0 | 266.0 | 321.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 131.0 | 203.0 | 256.0 | 310.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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