Prediction 4194
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Pernambuco |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=PE (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 323.0 | 50.0 | 77.0 | 115.0 | 196.0 | 504.0 | 733.0 | 909.0 | 1092.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 330.0 | 49.0 | 77.0 | 115.0 | 198.0 | 519.0 | 759.0 | 945.0 | 1139.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 333.0 | 47.0 | 75.0 | 114.0 | 199.0 | 529.0 | 779.0 | 974.0 | 1178.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 328.0 | 42.0 | 70.0 | 108.0 | 193.0 | 525.0 | 779.0 | 979.0 | 1188.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 354.0 | 48.0 | 77.0 | 118.0 | 209.0 | 567.0 | 844.0 | 1062.0 | 1292.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 332.0 | 38.0 | 66.0 | 105.0 | 192.0 | 539.0 | 809.0 | 1023.0 | 1248.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 332.0 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 103.0 | 190.0 | 543.0 | 819.0 | 1039.0 | 1271.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 333.0 | 34.0 | 62.0 | 101.0 | 189.0 | 548.0 | 832.0 | 1058.0 | 1299.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 344.0 | 35.0 | 64.0 | 104.0 | 195.0 | 568.0 | 865.0 | 1103.0 | 1356.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 346.0 | 34.0 | 62.0 | 103.0 | 195.0 | 574.0 | 878.0 | 1122.0 | 1382.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 282.0 | 13.0 | 38.0 | 72.0 | 151.0 | 480.0 | 745.0 | 959.0 | 1187.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 219.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 43.0 | 109.0 | 387.0 | 612.0 | 794.0 | 990.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 313.0 | 19.0 | 46.0 | 83.0 | 169.0 | 532.0 | 829.0 | 1069.0 | 1328.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 327.0 | 22.0 | 49.0 | 88.0 | 177.0 | 558.0 | 869.0 | 1123.0 | 1396.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 346.0 | 26.0 | 54.0 | 95.0 | 189.0 | 589.0 | 920.0 | 1189.0 | 1480.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 376.0 | 33.0 | 63.0 | 107.0 | 207.0 | 639.0 | 997.0 | 1290.0 | 1606.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 451.0 | 52.0 | 87.0 | 138.0 | 254.0 | 758.0 | 1178.0 | 1523.0 | 1895.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 504.0 | 65.0 | 103.0 | 159.0 | 286.0 | 843.0 | 1309.0 | 1691.0 | 2106.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 577.0 | 84.0 | 126.0 | 188.0 | 332.0 | 961.0 | 1490.0 | 1925.0 | 2398.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 624.0 | 95.0 | 140.0 | 207.0 | 361.0 | 1039.0 | 1611.0 | 2084.0 | 2597.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 701.0 | 113.0 | 164.0 | 237.0 | 408.0 | 1163.0 | 1803.0 | 2332.0 | 2909.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 810.0 | 140.0 | 198.0 | 281.0 | 476.0 | 1339.0 | 2074.0 | 2682.0 | 3346.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 849.0 | 149.0 | 209.0 | 295.0 | 499.0 | 1405.0 | 2179.0 | 2822.0 | 3524.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 890.0 | 157.0 | 220.0 | 310.0 | 523.0 | 1474.0 | 2289.0 | 2966.0 | 3707.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 850.0 | 145.0 | 205.0 | 292.0 | 496.0 | 1414.0 | 2203.0 | 2860.0 | 3580.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 980.0 | 177.0 | 245.0 | 344.0 | 576.0 | 1626.0 | 2531.0 | 3286.0 | 4114.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 965.0 | 171.0 | 238.0 | 336.0 | 565.0 | 1606.0 | 2506.0 | 3257.0 | 4083.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 1038.0 | 188.0 | 259.0 | 363.0 | 609.0 | 1726.0 | 2694.0 | 3505.0 | 4396.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 963.0 | 168.0 | 234.0 | 331.0 | 561.0 | 1610.0 | 2522.0 | 3286.0 | 4127.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 1002.0 | 176.0 | 244.0 | 345.0 | 584.0 | 1676.0 | 2627.0 | 3426.0 | 4306.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 1007.0 | 175.0 | 244.0 | 346.0 | 586.0 | 1687.0 | 2649.0 | 3458.0 | 4350.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 987.0 | 169.0 | 237.0 | 336.0 | 572.0 | 1658.0 | 2610.0 | 3411.0 | 4295.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 874.0 | 140.0 | 200.0 | 289.0 | 501.0 | 1477.0 | 2335.0 | 3057.0 | 3855.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 808.0 | 122.0 | 179.0 | 262.0 | 460.0 | 1374.0 | 2178.0 | 2857.0 | 3607.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 763.0 | 110.0 | 164.0 | 243.0 | 431.0 | 1303.0 | 2071.0 | 2721.0 | 3439.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 689.0 | 92.0 | 141.0 | 213.0 | 385.0 | 1185.0 | 1892.0 | 2490.0 | 3151.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 597.0 | 68.0 | 112.0 | 175.0 | 328.0 | 1036.0 | 1664.0 | 2195.0 | 2783.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 558.0 | 58.0 | 99.0 | 159.0 | 303.0 | 975.0 | 1572.0 | 2077.0 | 2638.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 526.0 | 49.0 | 88.0 | 145.0 | 282.0 | 925.0 | 1497.0 | 1983.0 | 2522.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 512.0 | 45.0 | 83.0 | 139.0 | 273.0 | 905.0 | 1468.0 | 1948.0 | 2480.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 465.0 | 33.0 | 68.0 | 120.0 | 244.0 | 829.0 | 1353.0 | 1799.0 | 2296.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 399.0 | 17.0 | 48.0 | 94.0 | 203.0 | 722.0 | 1188.0 | 1585.0 | 2027.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 406.0 | 18.0 | 49.0 | 96.0 | 207.0 | 735.0 | 1210.0 | 1615.0 | 2067.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 395.0 | 15.0 | 45.0 | 91.0 | 199.0 | 718.0 | 1185.0 | 1584.0 | 2030.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 356.0 | 5.0 | 33.0 | 75.0 | 175.0 | 655.0 | 1088.0 | 1458.0 | 1872.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 340.0 | 1.0 | 28.0 | 68.0 | 165.0 | 629.0 | 1049.0 | 1408.0 | 1810.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 314.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 58.0 | 149.0 | 587.0 | 984.0 | 1324.0 | 1705.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 302.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 53.0 | 142.0 | 568.0 | 955.0 | 1288.0 | 1660.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 287.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 47.0 | 132.0 | 544.0 | 919.0 | 1242.0 | 1602.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 268.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 121.0 | 513.0 | 871.0 | 1179.0 | 1524.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 276.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 42.0 | 125.0 | 527.0 | 895.0 | 1211.0 | 1566.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 275.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 125.0 | 527.0 | 896.0 | 1213.0 | 1569.0 |
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