Prediction 4195
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Piauí |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=PI (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 94.0 | 145.0 | 182.0 | 219.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 94.0 | 147.0 | 184.0 | 222.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 91.0 | 144.0 | 182.0 | 219.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 94.0 | 147.0 | 186.0 | 225.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 98.0 | 153.0 | 193.0 | 233.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 100.0 | 157.0 | 199.0 | 240.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 51.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 100.0 | 158.0 | 200.0 | 242.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 102.0 | 160.0 | 203.0 | 246.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 101.0 | 160.0 | 203.0 | 246.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 99.0 | 158.0 | 201.0 | 244.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 91.0 | 147.0 | 189.0 | 231.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 88.0 | 144.0 | 185.0 | 227.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 139.0 | 211.0 | 263.0 | 317.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 91.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 43.0 | 157.0 | 234.0 | 291.0 | 349.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 99.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 48.0 | 167.0 | 249.0 | 308.0 | 369.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 58.0 | 185.0 | 272.0 | 336.0 | 400.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 137.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 35.0 | 76.0 | 220.0 | 318.0 | 390.0 | 463.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 159.0 | 9.0 | 25.0 | 47.0 | 92.0 | 249.0 | 356.0 | 436.0 | 516.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 178.0 | 17.0 | 34.0 | 57.0 | 106.0 | 275.0 | 391.0 | 476.0 | 563.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 196.0 | 24.0 | 42.0 | 67.0 | 119.0 | 300.0 | 424.0 | 515.0 | 608.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 227.0 | 36.0 | 57.0 | 84.0 | 142.0 | 341.0 | 479.0 | 580.0 | 683.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 270.0 | 54.0 | 77.0 | 109.0 | 174.0 | 400.0 | 556.0 | 672.0 | 789.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 318.0 | 74.0 | 100.0 | 135.0 | 209.0 | 466.0 | 643.0 | 774.0 | 907.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 346.0 | 85.0 | 113.0 | 151.0 | 229.0 | 504.0 | 693.0 | 834.0 | 976.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 352.0 | 87.0 | 116.0 | 154.0 | 234.0 | 513.0 | 706.0 | 849.0 | 993.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 387.0 | 101.0 | 132.0 | 173.0 | 260.0 | 561.0 | 769.0 | 923.0 | 1080.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 411.0 | 111.0 | 143.0 | 186.0 | 277.0 | 593.0 | 812.0 | 974.0 | 1139.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 444.0 | 124.0 | 159.0 | 205.0 | 301.0 | 639.0 | 872.0 | 1046.0 | 1221.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 444.0 | 124.0 | 158.0 | 204.0 | 301.0 | 639.0 | 873.0 | 1047.0 | 1223.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 433.0 | 119.0 | 153.0 | 198.0 | 293.0 | 625.0 | 854.0 | 1025.0 | 1198.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 446.0 | 124.0 | 159.0 | 205.0 | 302.0 | 642.0 | 878.0 | 1054.0 | 1232.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 441.0 | 122.0 | 156.0 | 202.0 | 298.0 | 636.0 | 870.0 | 1044.0 | 1221.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 371.0 | 93.0 | 123.0 | 163.0 | 246.0 | 540.0 | 744.0 | 896.0 | 1049.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 353.0 | 85.0 | 114.0 | 153.0 | 233.0 | 516.0 | 713.0 | 860.0 | 1008.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 309.0 | 67.0 | 93.0 | 128.0 | 201.0 | 457.0 | 634.0 | 767.0 | 901.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 274.0 | 53.0 | 76.0 | 108.0 | 175.0 | 409.0 | 571.0 | 692.0 | 815.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 240.0 | 39.0 | 60.0 | 89.0 | 150.0 | 363.0 | 511.0 | 622.0 | 734.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 202.0 | 23.0 | 42.0 | 68.0 | 121.0 | 311.0 | 442.0 | 540.0 | 640.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 176.0 | 12.0 | 30.0 | 53.0 | 102.0 | 276.0 | 396.0 | 486.0 | 577.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 155.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 41.0 | 87.0 | 247.0 | 359.0 | 443.0 | 527.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 125.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 65.0 | 207.0 | 306.0 | 380.0 | 455.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 54.0 | 187.0 | 279.0 | 349.0 | 419.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 102.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 48.0 | 176.0 | 265.0 | 331.0 | 399.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 39.0 | 160.0 | 244.0 | 307.0 | 371.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 134.0 | 209.0 | 266.0 | 323.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 126.0 | 199.0 | 254.0 | 310.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 105.0 | 171.0 | 221.0 | 271.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 96.0 | 160.0 | 208.0 | 257.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 146.0 | 191.0 | 237.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 140.0 | 184.0 | 228.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 128.0 | 170.0 | 213.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 129.0 | 171.0 | 214.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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