Prediction 4196
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Paraná |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=PR (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 2480.0 | 536.0 | 697.0 | 933.0 | 1494.0 | 4077.0 | 6344.0 | 8252.0 | 10361.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2604.0 | 542.0 | 709.0 | 956.0 | 1548.0 | 4337.0 | 6827.0 | 8944.0 | 11298.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2610.0 | 519.0 | 685.0 | 932.0 | 1531.0 | 4403.0 | 7012.0 | 9250.0 | 11754.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2743.0 | 527.0 | 700.0 | 958.0 | 1590.0 | 4682.0 | 7537.0 | 10006.0 | 12786.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 3122.0 | 587.0 | 780.0 | 1073.0 | 1793.0 | 5384.0 | 8752.0 | 11689.0 | 15015.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 3234.0 | 587.0 | 786.0 | 1087.0 | 1836.0 | 5640.0 | 9260.0 | 12442.0 | 16066.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 3826.0 | 684.0 | 916.0 | 1270.0 | 2156.0 | 6735.0 | 11156.0 | 15071.0 | 19556.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 3989.0 | 692.0 | 931.0 | 1298.0 | 2224.0 | 7093.0 | 11860.0 | 16113.0 | 21009.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 4444.0 | 754.0 | 1018.0 | 1424.0 | 2457.0 | 7976.0 | 13451.0 | 18372.0 | 24065.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 5162.0 | 861.0 | 1164.0 | 1632.0 | 2831.0 | 9345.0 | 15889.0 | 21812.0 | 28698.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 4817.0 | 774.0 | 1053.0 | 1489.0 | 2613.0 | 8810.0 | 15114.0 | 20857.0 | 27567.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 4368.0 | 673.0 | 925.0 | 1319.0 | 2343.0 | 8072.0 | 13972.0 | 19381.0 | 25729.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 5530.0 | 849.0 | 1163.0 | 1657.0 | 2951.0 | 10291.0 | 17938.0 | 24992.0 | 33310.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 6526.0 | 989.0 | 1356.0 | 1934.0 | 3459.0 | 12237.0 | 21484.0 | 30066.0 | 40229.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 8028.0 | 1203.0 | 1649.0 | 2355.0 | 4229.0 | 15161.0 | 26805.0 | 37676.0 | 50603.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 9036.0 | 1330.0 | 1827.0 | 2617.0 | 4726.0 | 17197.0 | 30621.0 | 43225.0 | 58275.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 10733.0 | 1556.0 | 2140.0 | 3073.0 | 5577.0 | 20573.0 | 36884.0 | 52283.0 | 70745.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 12644.0 | 1805.0 | 2486.0 | 3578.0 | 6526.0 | 24410.0 | 44057.0 | 62705.0 | 85150.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 15370.0 | 2162.0 | 2982.0 | 4301.0 | 7883.0 | 29881.0 | 54282.0 | 77564.0 | 105694.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 17369.0 | 2400.0 | 3318.0 | 4800.0 | 8848.0 | 34005.0 | 62175.0 | 89191.0 | 121952.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 20441.0 | 2779.0 | 3849.0 | 5584.0 | 10346.0 | 40292.0 | 74134.0 | 106751.0 | 146445.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 23474.0 | 3138.0 | 4355.0 | 6337.0 | 11805.0 | 46580.0 | 86232.0 | 124634.0 | 171533.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 26620.0 | 3498.0 | 4866.0 | 7102.0 | 13302.0 | 53172.0 | 99030.0 | 143652.0 | 198333.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 29687.0 | 3834.0 | 5348.0 | 7828.0 | 14741.0 | 59684.0 | 111815.0 | 162775.0 | 225429.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 29495.0 | 3736.0 | 5228.0 | 7681.0 | 14551.0 | 59685.0 | 112473.0 | 164306.0 | 228239.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 30552.0 | 3800.0 | 5333.0 | 7862.0 | 14978.0 | 62212.0 | 117901.0 | 172820.0 | 240775.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 30853.0 | 3769.0 | 5305.0 | 7847.0 | 15033.0 | 63215.0 | 120467.0 | 177169.0 | 247546.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 28625.0 | 3428.0 | 4843.0 | 7191.0 | 13859.0 | 59011.0 | 113074.0 | 166840.0 | 233773.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 24518.0 | 2872.0 | 4076.0 | 6079.0 | 11793.0 | 50859.0 | 97984.0 | 145040.0 | 203792.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 22111.0 | 2537.0 | 3615.0 | 5414.0 | 10569.0 | 46142.0 | 89365.0 | 132696.0 | 186951.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 19436.0 | 2182.0 | 3123.0 | 4699.0 | 9231.0 | 40800.0 | 79430.0 | 118307.0 | 167121.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 15370.0 | 1679.0 | 2419.0 | 3661.0 | 7249.0 | 32466.0 | 63538.0 | 94926.0 | 134445.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 11074.0 | 1165.0 | 1695.0 | 2589.0 | 5180.0 | 23548.0 | 46334.0 | 69436.0 | 98601.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 7846.0 | 786.0 | 1161.0 | 1793.0 | 3635.0 | 16806.0 | 33252.0 | 49987.0 | 71168.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 5689.0 | 536.0 | 807.0 | 1266.0 | 2607.0 | 12279.0 | 24434.0 | 36845.0 | 52595.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 4997.0 | 452.0 | 689.0 | 1091.0 | 2272.0 | 10855.0 | 21710.0 | 32832.0 | 46980.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 3971.0 | 335.0 | 523.0 | 843.0 | 1785.0 | 8692.0 | 17482.0 | 26518.0 | 38040.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 3430.0 | 270.0 | 431.0 | 707.0 | 1524.0 | 7575.0 | 15339.0 | 23357.0 | 33616.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 2854.0 | 203.0 | 337.0 | 566.0 | 1249.0 | 6367.0 | 12993.0 | 19870.0 | 28700.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 2493.0 | 161.0 | 277.0 | 477.0 | 1076.0 | 5616.0 | 11546.0 | 17729.0 | 25696.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 2133.0 | 120.0 | 219.0 | 391.0 | 906.0 | 4857.0 | 10060.0 | 15512.0 | 22559.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 1979.0 | 101.0 | 193.0 | 351.0 | 830.0 | 4545.0 | 9479.0 | 14671.0 | 21405.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 1799.0 | 80.0 | 163.0 | 307.0 | 744.0 | 4171.0 | 8759.0 | 13608.0 | 19918.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 1630.0 | 61.0 | 136.0 | 267.0 | 665.0 | 3817.0 | 8070.0 | 12585.0 | 18479.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 1520.0 | 48.0 | 118.0 | 239.0 | 611.0 | 3589.0 | 7638.0 | 11955.0 | 17607.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 1491.0 | 43.0 | 111.0 | 229.0 | 595.0 | 3546.0 | 7589.0 | 11917.0 | 17602.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 1406.0 | 33.0 | 97.0 | 208.0 | 553.0 | 3370.0 | 7257.0 | 11434.0 | 16937.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 1354.0 | 26.0 | 87.0 | 194.0 | 527.0 | 3271.0 | 7084.0 | 11198.0 | 16633.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 1392.0 | 28.0 | 89.0 | 199.0 | 540.0 | 3377.0 | 7348.0 | 11649.0 | 17346.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 1376.0 | 24.0 | 85.0 | 193.0 | 530.0 | 3360.0 | 7348.0 | 11684.0 | 17443.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 1359.0 | 21.0 | 80.0 | 186.0 | 519.0 | 3338.0 | 7337.0 | 11700.0 | 17512.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 1380.0 | 21.0 | 81.0 | 187.0 | 525.0 | 3405.0 | 7516.0 | 12019.0 | 18032.0 |
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