Prediction 4197
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio de Janeiro |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=RJ (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 566.0 | 107.0 | 149.0 | 210.0 | 345.0 | 896.0 | 1331.0 | 1677.0 | 2045.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 601.0 | 111.0 | 156.0 | 220.0 | 364.0 | 960.0 | 1438.0 | 1822.0 | 2232.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 621.0 | 110.0 | 156.0 | 222.0 | 372.0 | 1002.0 | 1514.0 | 1928.0 | 2372.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 624.0 | 105.0 | 151.0 | 217.0 | 369.0 | 1017.0 | 1551.0 | 1986.0 | 2455.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 683.0 | 116.0 | 165.0 | 237.0 | 402.0 | 1120.0 | 1718.0 | 2209.0 | 2741.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 701.0 | 115.0 | 165.0 | 239.0 | 409.0 | 1160.0 | 1794.0 | 2317.0 | 2886.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 775.0 | 129.0 | 184.0 | 264.0 | 452.0 | 1289.0 | 2005.0 | 2600.0 | 3250.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 844.0 | 141.0 | 200.0 | 286.0 | 490.0 | 1411.0 | 2208.0 | 2873.0 | 3605.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 966.0 | 165.0 | 232.0 | 329.0 | 560.0 | 1620.0 | 2547.0 | 3326.0 | 4185.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 1008.0 | 169.0 | 238.0 | 339.0 | 581.0 | 1702.0 | 2694.0 | 3531.0 | 4459.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 965.0 | 153.0 | 219.0 | 316.0 | 549.0 | 1646.0 | 2625.0 | 3457.0 | 4381.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 1005.0 | 157.0 | 225.0 | 325.0 | 569.0 | 1725.0 | 2768.0 | 3659.0 | 4652.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 1594.0 | 285.0 | 389.0 | 543.0 | 918.0 | 2719.0 | 4359.0 | 5766.0 | 7343.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 1760.0 | 315.0 | 428.0 | 597.0 | 1010.0 | 3018.0 | 4863.0 | 6455.0 | 8244.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 2073.0 | 375.0 | 506.0 | 704.0 | 1187.0 | 3567.0 | 5773.0 | 7685.0 | 9842.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 2213.0 | 396.0 | 535.0 | 745.0 | 1261.0 | 3829.0 | 6231.0 | 8323.0 | 10690.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 2413.0 | 429.0 | 579.0 | 807.0 | 1370.0 | 4198.0 | 6866.0 | 9200.0 | 11850.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 2655.0 | 469.0 | 633.0 | 882.0 | 1501.0 | 4641.0 | 7628.0 | 10252.0 | 13241.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 2855.0 | 499.0 | 675.0 | 941.0 | 1607.0 | 5017.0 | 8287.0 | 11173.0 | 14469.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 3109.0 | 540.0 | 729.0 | 1018.0 | 1742.0 | 5491.0 | 9113.0 | 12323.0 | 16000.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 3397.0 | 585.0 | 791.0 | 1105.0 | 1896.0 | 6026.0 | 10049.0 | 13628.0 | 17740.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 3721.0 | 637.0 | 860.0 | 1202.0 | 2069.0 | 6633.0 | 11110.0 | 15110.0 | 19718.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 4124.0 | 701.0 | 947.0 | 1325.0 | 2284.0 | 7383.0 | 12422.0 | 16940.0 | 22160.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 4242.0 | 711.0 | 962.0 | 1350.0 | 2338.0 | 7634.0 | 12905.0 | 17648.0 | 23143.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 4225.0 | 696.0 | 945.0 | 1330.0 | 2315.0 | 7644.0 | 12983.0 | 17805.0 | 23406.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 4625.0 | 757.0 | 1027.0 | 1447.0 | 2525.0 | 8404.0 | 14332.0 | 19706.0 | 25964.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 4453.0 | 714.0 | 973.0 | 1377.0 | 2417.0 | 8136.0 | 13939.0 | 19219.0 | 25382.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 4172.0 | 653.0 | 895.0 | 1273.0 | 2251.0 | 7665.0 | 13195.0 | 18242.0 | 24148.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 3998.0 | 612.0 | 844.0 | 1205.0 | 2144.0 | 7383.0 | 12767.0 | 17697.0 | 23479.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 3748.0 | 560.0 | 776.0 | 1115.0 | 1997.0 | 6959.0 | 12088.0 | 16799.0 | 22338.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 3582.0 | 523.0 | 729.0 | 1052.0 | 1898.0 | 6685.0 | 11662.0 | 16248.0 | 21652.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 3134.0 | 440.0 | 620.0 | 904.0 | 1647.0 | 5885.0 | 10317.0 | 14413.0 | 19250.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 2513.0 | 331.0 | 476.0 | 704.0 | 1305.0 | 4756.0 | 8385.0 | 11749.0 | 15729.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 2142.0 | 265.0 | 389.0 | 585.0 | 1101.0 | 4084.0 | 7238.0 | 10171.0 | 13648.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 1827.0 | 210.0 | 316.0 | 484.0 | 928.0 | 3511.0 | 6256.0 | 8816.0 | 11857.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 1547.0 | 162.0 | 252.0 | 396.0 | 775.0 | 3000.0 | 5376.0 | 7598.0 | 10243.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 1292.0 | 119.0 | 195.0 | 316.0 | 637.0 | 2530.0 | 4563.0 | 6468.0 | 8742.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 1100.0 | 86.0 | 151.0 | 255.0 | 532.0 | 2178.0 | 3957.0 | 5630.0 | 7631.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 1021.0 | 71.0 | 132.0 | 228.0 | 487.0 | 2039.0 | 3726.0 | 5319.0 | 7229.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 854.0 | 44.0 | 95.0 | 177.0 | 397.0 | 1729.0 | 3187.0 | 4568.0 | 6228.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 757.0 | 27.0 | 73.0 | 146.0 | 345.0 | 1552.0 | 2881.0 | 4145.0 | 5667.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 638.0 | 8.0 | 47.0 | 110.0 | 281.0 | 1330.0 | 2492.0 | 3600.0 | 4938.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 611.0 | 3.0 | 40.0 | 101.0 | 265.0 | 1282.0 | 2416.0 | 3501.0 | 4814.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 566.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 87.0 | 241.0 | 1202.0 | 2280.0 | 3314.0 | 4569.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 533.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 76.0 | 222.0 | 1142.0 | 2180.0 | 3178.0 | 4392.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 476.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 59.0 | 192.0 | 1036.0 | 1992.0 | 2915.0 | 4040.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 433.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 46.0 | 169.0 | 956.0 | 1852.0 | 2720.0 | 3780.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 413.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 158.0 | 919.0 | 1791.0 | 2638.0 | 3675.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 432.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.0 | 167.0 | 962.0 | 1877.0 | 2769.0 | 3862.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 436.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.0 | 168.0 | 975.0 | 1909.0 | 2820.0 | 3940.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 411.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 154.0 | 927.0 | 1827.0 | 2707.0 | 3790.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 424.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.0 | 160.0 | 959.0 | 1892.0 | 2808.0 | 3938.0 |
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