Prediction 4198
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio Grande do Norte |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=RN (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 121.0 | 200.0 | 260.0 | 321.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 128.0 | 211.0 | 274.0 | 340.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 123.0 | 205.0 | 269.0 | 334.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 128.0 | 214.0 | 280.0 | 349.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 135.0 | 226.0 | 296.0 | 368.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 143.0 | 238.0 | 311.0 | 388.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 152.0 | 251.0 | 329.0 | 410.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 150.0 | 250.0 | 328.0 | 410.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 156.0 | 260.0 | 341.0 | 426.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 162.0 | 270.0 | 354.0 | 443.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 153.0 | 257.0 | 339.0 | 426.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 135.0 | 233.0 | 311.0 | 393.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 44.0 | 216.0 | 349.0 | 454.0 | 565.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 130.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 55.0 | 240.0 | 385.0 | 500.0 | 621.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 150.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 68.0 | 271.0 | 431.0 | 557.0 | 691.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 162.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 76.0 | 290.0 | 459.0 | 593.0 | 735.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 209.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 44.0 | 107.0 | 362.0 | 563.0 | 723.0 | 893.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 225.0 | 1.0 | 21.0 | 51.0 | 117.0 | 386.0 | 599.0 | 769.0 | 949.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 271.0 | 14.0 | 38.0 | 72.0 | 147.0 | 457.0 | 702.0 | 898.0 | 1106.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 348.0 | 37.0 | 66.0 | 106.0 | 198.0 | 573.0 | 871.0 | 1109.0 | 1363.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 398.0 | 52.0 | 84.0 | 129.0 | 231.0 | 650.0 | 985.0 | 1252.0 | 1537.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 460.0 | 70.0 | 106.0 | 157.0 | 271.0 | 745.0 | 1123.0 | 1426.0 | 1749.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 510.0 | 84.0 | 123.0 | 178.0 | 303.0 | 821.0 | 1235.0 | 1567.0 | 1921.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 503.0 | 81.0 | 120.0 | 175.0 | 299.0 | 812.0 | 1224.0 | 1555.0 | 1908.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 498.0 | 79.0 | 117.0 | 172.0 | 295.0 | 806.0 | 1217.0 | 1547.0 | 1900.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 624.0 | 116.0 | 162.0 | 228.0 | 377.0 | 998.0 | 1498.0 | 1900.0 | 2330.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 666.0 | 127.0 | 176.0 | 246.0 | 404.0 | 1064.0 | 1596.0 | 2024.0 | 2482.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 656.0 | 124.0 | 172.0 | 241.0 | 397.0 | 1050.0 | 1577.0 | 2002.0 | 2457.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 625.0 | 114.0 | 160.0 | 226.0 | 376.0 | 1004.0 | 1511.0 | 1920.0 | 2359.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 621.0 | 112.0 | 158.0 | 224.0 | 373.0 | 998.0 | 1505.0 | 1913.0 | 2352.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 603.0 | 106.0 | 151.0 | 215.0 | 361.0 | 973.0 | 1469.0 | 1870.0 | 2300.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 580.0 | 99.0 | 142.0 | 204.0 | 345.0 | 938.0 | 1419.0 | 1808.0 | 2226.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 510.0 | 78.0 | 117.0 | 172.0 | 299.0 | 832.0 | 1265.0 | 1615.0 | 1991.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 476.0 | 67.0 | 104.0 | 157.0 | 276.0 | 781.0 | 1191.0 | 1523.0 | 1880.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 438.0 | 56.0 | 91.0 | 140.0 | 252.0 | 724.0 | 1109.0 | 1420.0 | 1755.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 397.0 | 44.0 | 76.0 | 121.0 | 224.0 | 661.0 | 1018.0 | 1306.0 | 1616.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 371.0 | 36.0 | 66.0 | 109.0 | 207.0 | 622.0 | 961.0 | 1235.0 | 1530.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 335.0 | 25.0 | 53.0 | 92.0 | 183.0 | 567.0 | 881.0 | 1136.0 | 1410.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 320.0 | 20.0 | 47.0 | 85.0 | 173.0 | 545.0 | 850.0 | 1098.0 | 1365.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 308.0 | 17.0 | 43.0 | 80.0 | 165.0 | 529.0 | 827.0 | 1070.0 | 1331.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 277.0 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 66.0 | 145.0 | 481.0 | 758.0 | 983.0 | 1226.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 239.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 48.0 | 119.0 | 423.0 | 672.0 | 876.0 | 1095.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 228.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 43.0 | 112.0 | 407.0 | 649.0 | 847.0 | 1061.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 225.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 42.0 | 110.0 | 402.0 | 643.0 | 840.0 | 1053.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 192.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 27.0 | 89.0 | 353.0 | 571.0 | 749.0 | 942.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 168.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 73.0 | 316.0 | 517.0 | 682.0 | 859.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 134.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 51.0 | 263.0 | 439.0 | 583.0 | 738.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 129.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.0 | 255.0 | 427.0 | 568.0 | 721.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 118.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 239.0 | 404.0 | 539.0 | 685.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 109.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 226.0 | 385.0 | 515.0 | 656.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 203.0 | 350.0 | 472.0 | 603.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 204.0 | 353.0 | 475.0 | 607.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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