Prediction 4503
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Acre |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 238.0 | 489.0 | 696.0 | 911.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 92.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 268.0 | 547.0 | 777.0 | 1016.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 271.0 | 549.0 | 776.0 | 1012.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 31.0 | 286.0 | 547.0 | 755.0 | 969.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 127.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 37.0 | 318.0 | 599.0 | 823.0 | 1053.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 147.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 44.0 | 357.0 | 664.0 | 907.0 | 1155.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 164.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 51.0 | 392.0 | 723.0 | 983.0 | 1250.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 186.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 16.0 | 61.0 | 432.0 | 782.0 | 1056.0 | 1336.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 213.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 19.0 | 72.0 | 486.0 | 871.0 | 1172.0 | 1477.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 212.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 18.0 | 70.0 | 490.0 | 886.0 | 1195.0 | 1510.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 190.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 16.0 | 62.0 | 439.0 | 792.0 | 1069.0 | 1350.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 164.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 48.0 | 408.0 | 769.0 | 1055.0 | 1349.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 249.0 | 88.0 | 107.0 | 131.0 | 181.0 | 333.0 | 422.0 | 482.0 | 539.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 315.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 39.0 | 120.0 | 664.0 | 1137.0 | 1499.0 | 1863.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 316.0 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 42.0 | 124.0 | 656.0 | 1114.0 | 1464.0 | 1815.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 351.0 | 15.0 | 29.0 | 58.0 | 151.0 | 684.0 | 1120.0 | 1447.0 | 1773.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 327.0 | 16.0 | 30.0 | 58.0 | 145.0 | 625.0 | 1010.0 | 1298.0 | 1585.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 325.0 | 11.0 | 24.0 | 49.0 | 135.0 | 649.0 | 1077.0 | 1401.0 | 1725.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 311.0 | 11.0 | 22.0 | 46.0 | 128.0 | 625.0 | 1042.0 | 1357.0 | 1673.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 303.0 | 10.0 | 22.0 | 45.0 | 125.0 | 608.0 | 1012.0 | 1318.0 | 1624.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 267.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 37.0 | 106.0 | 547.0 | 922.0 | 1208.0 | 1494.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 257.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 37.0 | 104.0 | 521.0 | 873.0 | 1139.0 | 1406.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 215.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 34.0 | 91.0 | 426.0 | 704.0 | 914.0 | 1123.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 196.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 31.0 | 83.0 | 387.0 | 636.0 | 823.0 | 1011.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 172.0 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 32.0 | 78.0 | 322.0 | 513.0 | 656.0 | 798.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 143.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 27.0 | 65.0 | 269.0 | 430.0 | 550.0 | 669.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 132.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 27.0 | 63.0 | 240.0 | 376.0 | 477.0 | 576.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 113.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 | 27.0 | 57.0 | 199.0 | 304.0 | 381.0 | 457.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 102.0 | 10.0 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 54.0 | 173.0 | 259.0 | 321.0 | 381.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 85.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 41.0 | 155.0 | 243.0 | 308.0 | 372.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 86.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 23.0 | 46.0 | 146.0 | 218.0 | 270.0 | 321.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 79.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 20.0 | 41.0 | 134.0 | 201.0 | 250.0 | 297.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 70.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 36.0 | 121.0 | 183.0 | 228.0 | 272.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 63.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 33.0 | 107.0 | 161.0 | 200.0 | 239.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 51.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 31.0 | 80.0 | 113.0 | 137.0 | 159.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 43.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 78.0 | 122.0 | 154.0 | 186.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 41.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 23.0 | 67.0 | 98.0 | 120.0 | 141.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 33.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | 59.0 | 92.0 | 116.0 | 139.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 35.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 60.0 | 91.0 | 113.0 | 135.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 35.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 59.0 | 87.0 | 108.0 | 128.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 34.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 18.0 | 56.0 | 84.0 | 103.0 | 122.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 32.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 15.0 | 57.0 | 89.0 | 113.0 | 137.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 28.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 55.0 | 91.0 | 119.0 | 146.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 32.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 14.0 | 61.0 | 98.0 | 126.0 | 153.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 58.0 | 99.0 | 131.0 | 162.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 61.0 | 105.0 | 137.0 | 171.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 76.0 | 144.0 | 198.0 | 254.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 115.0 | 238.0 | 341.0 | 447.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 142.0 | 314.0 | 461.0 | 615.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 194.0 | 430.0 | 630.0 | 842.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 199.0 | 444.0 | 653.0 | 875.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 195.0 | 444.0 | 658.0 | 884.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
