Prediction 4504
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Alagoas |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 120.0 | 12.0 | 19.0 | 31.0 | 63.0 | 205.0 | 307.0 | 382.0 | 455.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 126.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 | 28.0 | 61.0 | 225.0 | 349.0 | 439.0 | 529.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 111.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 23.0 | 53.0 | 202.0 | 317.0 | 401.0 | 485.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 103.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 18.0 | 45.0 | 198.0 | 320.0 | 411.0 | 502.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 113.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 44.0 | 236.0 | 403.0 | 530.0 | 657.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 108.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 39.0 | 237.0 | 413.0 | 550.0 | 688.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 92.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 39.0 | 180.0 | 295.0 | 382.0 | 469.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 84.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 33.0 | 173.0 | 293.0 | 383.0 | 475.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 87.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 36.0 | 175.0 | 291.0 | 379.0 | 467.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 80.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 32.0 | 166.0 | 280.0 | 367.0 | 454.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 63.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 127.0 | 212.0 | 276.0 | 340.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 56.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 20.0 | 124.0 | 218.0 | 291.0 | 365.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 47.0 | 88.0 | 119.0 | 151.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 80.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 36.0 | 150.0 | 241.0 | 309.0 | 376.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 96.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 22.0 | 47.0 | 171.0 | 263.0 | 332.0 | 399.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 101.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 22.0 | 49.0 | 181.0 | 281.0 | 354.0 | 426.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 100.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 44.0 | 193.0 | 313.0 | 403.0 | 492.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 114.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 20.0 | 51.0 | 218.0 | 353.0 | 453.0 | 553.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 132.0 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 62.0 | 244.0 | 385.0 | 489.0 | 593.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 143.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 25.0 | 63.0 | 274.0 | 443.0 | 570.0 | 696.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 155.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 22.0 | 63.0 | 313.0 | 524.0 | 684.0 | 844.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 185.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 24.0 | 72.0 | 384.0 | 651.0 | 855.0 | 1060.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 206.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 23.0 | 75.0 | 444.0 | 771.0 | 1023.0 | 1277.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 216.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 23.0 | 77.0 | 472.0 | 827.0 | 1101.0 | 1379.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 242.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 21.0 | 80.0 | 556.0 | 1002.0 | 1350.0 | 1705.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 244.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 20.0 | 78.0 | 574.0 | 1048.0 | 1421.0 | 1801.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 288.0 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 37.0 | 112.0 | 600.0 | 1022.0 | 1344.0 | 1667.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 308.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 39.0 | 118.0 | 645.0 | 1102.0 | 1452.0 | 1803.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 334.0 | 10.0 | 22.0 | 48.0 | 135.0 | 679.0 | 1138.0 | 1487.0 | 1837.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 348.0 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 53.0 | 145.0 | 695.0 | 1154.0 | 1500.0 | 1847.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 392.0 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 55.0 | 158.0 | 799.0 | 1341.0 | 1754.0 | 2167.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 424.0 | 15.0 | 31.0 | 64.0 | 176.0 | 848.0 | 1408.0 | 1831.0 | 2255.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 444.0 | 17.0 | 35.0 | 71.0 | 188.0 | 876.0 | 1442.0 | 1869.0 | 2295.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 408.0 | 13.0 | 27.0 | 58.0 | 165.0 | 832.0 | 1396.0 | 1825.0 | 2255.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 396.0 | 11.0 | 23.0 | 52.0 | 154.0 | 825.0 | 1403.0 | 1844.0 | 2288.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 450.0 | 22.0 | 42.0 | 81.0 | 201.0 | 857.0 | 1381.0 | 1773.0 | 2163.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 457.0 | 29.0 | 52.0 | 94.0 | 216.0 | 837.0 | 1319.0 | 1675.0 | 2027.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 403.0 | 19.0 | 37.0 | 71.0 | 179.0 | 772.0 | 1249.0 | 1605.0 | 1960.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 371.0 | 20.0 | 37.0 | 70.0 | 169.0 | 698.0 | 1115.0 | 1427.0 | 1735.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 364.0 | 18.0 | 34.0 | 66.0 | 163.0 | 692.0 | 1115.0 | 1431.0 | 1746.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 365.0 | 20.0 | 38.0 | 70.0 | 168.0 | 682.0 | 1087.0 | 1388.0 | 1687.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 330.0 | 20.0 | 36.0 | 66.0 | 155.0 | 609.0 | 963.0 | 1226.0 | 1485.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 298.0 | 21.0 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 144.0 | 538.0 | 840.0 | 1062.0 | 1281.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 278.0 | 20.0 | 35.0 | 61.0 | 136.0 | 500.0 | 777.0 | 981.0 | 1183.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 255.0 | 22.0 | 37.0 | 62.0 | 130.0 | 446.0 | 680.0 | 851.0 | 1019.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 242.0 | 20.0 | 34.0 | 58.0 | 122.0 | 424.0 | 649.0 | 813.0 | 974.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 205.0 | 20.0 | 32.0 | 53.0 | 107.0 | 351.0 | 528.0 | 657.0 | 783.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 194.0 | 15.0 | 26.0 | 45.0 | 97.0 | 344.0 | 530.0 | 667.0 | 801.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 182.0 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 45.0 | 94.0 | 314.0 | 477.0 | 595.0 | 711.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 161.0 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 43.0 | 86.0 | 272.0 | 406.0 | 503.0 | 598.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 161.0 | 16.0 | 26.0 | 42.0 | 85.0 | 274.0 | 411.0 | 511.0 | 608.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 148.0 | 17.0 | 26.0 | 42.0 | 81.0 | 247.0 | 365.0 | 450.0 | 533.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
