Prediction 4505
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Amazonas |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 59.0 | 10.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 35.0 | 91.0 | 128.0 | 155.0 | 180.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 62.0 | 13.0 | 18.0 | 25.0 | 40.0 | 92.0 | 126.0 | 149.0 | 171.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 60.0 | 12.0 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 38.0 | 90.0 | 123.0 | 146.0 | 169.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 68.0 | 16.0 | 22.0 | 29.0 | 45.0 | 99.0 | 133.0 | 156.0 | 179.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 75.0 | 17.0 | 23.0 | 31.0 | 49.0 | 110.0 | 149.0 | 176.0 | 202.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 84.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 27.0 | 49.0 | 134.0 | 192.0 | 234.0 | 274.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 100.0 | 14.0 | 21.0 | 31.0 | 57.0 | 160.0 | 232.0 | 283.0 | 332.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 103.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 31.0 | 58.0 | 167.0 | 243.0 | 298.0 | 350.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 119.0 | 15.0 | 23.0 | 35.0 | 66.0 | 193.0 | 282.0 | 346.0 | 408.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 122.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 33.0 | 65.0 | 205.0 | 306.0 | 380.0 | 451.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 111.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 29.0 | 59.0 | 189.0 | 283.0 | 351.0 | 417.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 97.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 43.0 | 188.0 | 305.0 | 393.0 | 480.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 36.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 22.0 | 54.0 | 75.0 | 90.0 | 104.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 185.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 31.0 | 80.0 | 360.0 | 588.0 | 759.0 | 929.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 217.0 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 35.0 | 93.0 | 426.0 | 700.0 | 905.0 | 1110.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 241.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | 34.0 | 97.0 | 492.0 | 827.0 | 1081.0 | 1337.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 254.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 25.0 | 88.0 | 569.0 | 1009.0 | 1351.0 | 1698.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 291.0 | 6.0 | 15.0 | 34.0 | 108.0 | 623.0 | 1077.0 | 1427.0 | 1779.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 307.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 25.0 | 98.0 | 721.0 | 1315.0 | 1781.0 | 2255.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 326.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 24.0 | 100.0 | 787.0 | 1454.0 | 1982.0 | 2520.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 324.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 | 81.0 | 883.0 | 1745.0 | 2443.0 | 3166.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 328.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 20.0 | 92.0 | 834.0 | 1587.0 | 2189.0 | 2807.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 303.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 20.0 | 89.0 | 751.0 | 1410.0 | 1933.0 | 2469.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 286.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 24.0 | 92.0 | 670.0 | 1220.0 | 1652.0 | 2091.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 252.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 27.0 | 91.0 | 550.0 | 961.0 | 1278.0 | 1599.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 216.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 27.0 | 82.0 | 454.0 | 777.0 | 1025.0 | 1274.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 210.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 29.0 | 84.0 | 429.0 | 721.0 | 943.0 | 1165.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 190.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 35.0 | 86.0 | 360.0 | 577.0 | 739.0 | 900.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 173.0 | 16.0 | 26.0 | 43.0 | 89.0 | 299.0 | 452.0 | 564.0 | 674.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 143.0 | 13.0 | 22.0 | 36.0 | 74.0 | 245.0 | 370.0 | 461.0 | 550.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 136.0 | 17.0 | 26.0 | 40.0 | 76.0 | 223.0 | 327.0 | 401.0 | 473.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 127.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 35.0 | 68.0 | 211.0 | 314.0 | 387.0 | 459.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 118.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 34.0 | 65.0 | 194.0 | 285.0 | 350.0 | 414.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 104.0 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 35.0 | 62.0 | 162.0 | 229.0 | 276.0 | 322.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 91.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 30.0 | 53.0 | 144.0 | 205.0 | 249.0 | 291.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 97.0 | 15.0 | 21.0 | 32.0 | 57.0 | 153.0 | 219.0 | 265.0 | 310.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 86.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 29.0 | 51.0 | 135.0 | 191.0 | 231.0 | 270.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 80.0 | 13.0 | 19.0 | 28.0 | 48.0 | 124.0 | 175.0 | 211.0 | 246.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 71.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 25.0 | 43.0 | 109.0 | 152.0 | 182.0 | 212.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 75.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 28.0 | 46.0 | 114.0 | 157.0 | 188.0 | 218.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 78.0 | 17.0 | 23.0 | 32.0 | 50.0 | 115.0 | 156.0 | 185.0 | 212.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 69.0 | 15.0 | 20.0 | 27.0 | 44.0 | 102.0 | 139.0 | 165.0 | 189.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 66.0 | 19.0 | 24.0 | 31.0 | 45.0 | 92.0 | 120.0 | 139.0 | 158.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 59.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 38.0 | 87.0 | 119.0 | 141.0 | 163.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 56.0 | 11.0 | 15.0 | 21.0 | 35.0 | 85.0 | 118.0 | 141.0 | 163.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 53.0 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 25.0 | 36.0 | 75.0 | 98.0 | 114.0 | 129.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 50.0 | 17.0 | 21.0 | 26.0 | 36.0 | 68.0 | 86.0 | 98.0 | 109.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 51.0 | 17.0 | 20.0 | 26.0 | 36.0 | 70.0 | 89.0 | 102.0 | 114.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 52.0 | 17.0 | 21.0 | 27.0 | 37.0 | 70.0 | 89.0 | 102.0 | 114.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 60.0 | 18.0 | 23.0 | 29.0 | 42.0 | 83.0 | 107.0 | 123.0 | 139.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 55.0 | 18.0 | 22.0 | 27.0 | 39.0 | 75.0 | 96.0 | 111.0 | 124.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 61.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 39.0 | 90.0 | 123.0 | 146.0 | 168.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
