Prediction 4506
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Amapá |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 41.0 | 70.0 | 92.0 | 115.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 61.0 | 81.0 | 101.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 33.0 | 65.0 | 92.0 | 120.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 37.0 | 69.0 | 94.0 | 119.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 31.0 | 58.0 | 79.0 | 101.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 55.0 | 76.0 | 97.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 21.0 | 36.0 | 46.0 | 57.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 20.0 | 33.0 | 43.0 | 53.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 34.0 | 46.0 | 58.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 | 27.0 | 36.0 | 46.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 24.0 | 31.0 | 39.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 34.0 | 45.0 | 56.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 67.0 | 117.0 | 174.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 51.0 | 88.0 | 117.0 | 146.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 66.0 | 121.0 | 165.0 | 209.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 66.0 | 121.0 | 163.0 | 206.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 70.0 | 135.0 | 187.0 | 240.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 109.0 | 201.0 | 275.0 | 350.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 103.0 | 213.0 | 303.0 | 396.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 117.0 | 237.0 | 335.0 | 437.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 115.0 | 229.0 | 321.0 | 417.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 129.0 | 258.0 | 362.0 | 471.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 119.0 | 233.0 | 325.0 | 420.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 | 97.0 | 174.0 | 234.0 | 295.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 77.0 | 142.0 | 194.0 | 246.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 86.0 | 163.0 | 224.0 | 287.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 14.0 | 99.0 | 178.0 | 241.0 | 304.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 76.0 | 132.0 | 175.0 | 219.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 73.0 | 127.0 | 168.0 | 210.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 60.0 | 101.0 | 132.0 | 164.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 57.0 | 97.0 | 128.0 | 159.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 66.0 | 119.0 | 159.0 | 201.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 54.0 | 92.0 | 122.0 | 151.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 45.0 | 81.0 | 110.0 | 138.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 43.0 | 81.0 | 110.0 | 141.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 46.0 | 85.0 | 117.0 | 149.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 42.0 | 76.0 | 104.0 | 132.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 39.0 | 73.0 | 99.0 | 126.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 35.0 | 66.0 | 91.0 | 116.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 44.0 | 94.0 | 135.0 | 178.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 43.0 | 82.0 | 114.0 | 147.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 42.0 | 85.0 | 120.0 | 156.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 43.0 | 82.0 | 113.0 | 145.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 56.0 | 114.0 | 161.0 | 211.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 53.0 | 101.0 | 139.0 | 179.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 50.0 | 93.0 | 127.0 | 161.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 51.0 | 99.0 | 139.0 | 180.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 46.0 | 86.0 | 118.0 | 150.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 41.0 | 76.0 | 104.0 | 133.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 40.0 | 71.0 | 95.0 | 119.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 44.0 | 80.0 | 107.0 | 135.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 40.0 | 71.0 | 94.0 | 118.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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