Prediction 4508
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 136.0 | 26.0 | 36.0 | 51.0 | 84.0 | 207.0 | 287.0 | 344.0 | 398.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 124.0 | 24.0 | 33.0 | 46.0 | 77.0 | 187.0 | 259.0 | 310.0 | 359.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 111.0 | 25.0 | 34.0 | 46.0 | 72.0 | 162.0 | 220.0 | 260.0 | 298.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 113.0 | 18.0 | 26.0 | 38.0 | 66.0 | 178.0 | 254.0 | 308.0 | 360.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 130.0 | 19.0 | 28.0 | 42.0 | 75.0 | 207.0 | 297.0 | 362.0 | 424.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 131.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 34.0 | 68.0 | 224.0 | 337.0 | 420.0 | 500.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 147.0 | 21.0 | 31.0 | 46.0 | 84.0 | 235.0 | 339.0 | 413.0 | 485.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 143.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 32.0 | 70.0 | 255.0 | 395.0 | 498.0 | 599.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 148.0 | 13.0 | 22.0 | 36.0 | 76.0 | 257.0 | 391.0 | 488.0 | 584.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 129.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 31.0 | 65.0 | 227.0 | 347.0 | 435.0 | 521.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 106.0 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 24.0 | 53.0 | 187.0 | 288.0 | 362.0 | 434.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 88.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 36.0 | 176.0 | 291.0 | 379.0 | 467.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 22.0 | 164.0 | 301.0 | 408.0 | 517.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 159.0 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 34.0 | 76.0 | 289.0 | 451.0 | 571.0 | 690.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 182.0 | 13.0 | 23.0 | 40.0 | 89.0 | 325.0 | 504.0 | 636.0 | 766.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 236.0 | 21.0 | 35.0 | 58.0 | 121.0 | 409.0 | 622.0 | 778.0 | 930.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 275.0 | 24.0 | 40.0 | 67.0 | 140.0 | 480.0 | 732.0 | 916.0 | 1097.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 344.0 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 96.0 | 186.0 | 573.0 | 849.0 | 1049.0 | 1243.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 373.0 | 37.0 | 60.0 | 97.0 | 196.0 | 635.0 | 955.0 | 1188.0 | 1415.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 431.0 | 42.0 | 67.0 | 110.0 | 224.0 | 740.0 | 1117.0 | 1392.0 | 1660.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 475.0 | 54.0 | 84.0 | 132.0 | 257.0 | 793.0 | 1178.0 | 1455.0 | 1725.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 550.0 | 60.0 | 94.0 | 150.0 | 295.0 | 925.0 | 1379.0 | 1707.0 | 2027.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 630.0 | 67.0 | 106.0 | 170.0 | 336.0 | 1064.0 | 1590.0 | 1971.0 | 2343.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 697.0 | 72.0 | 115.0 | 185.0 | 369.0 | 1182.0 | 1772.0 | 2200.0 | 2618.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 715.0 | 68.0 | 111.0 | 182.0 | 371.0 | 1229.0 | 1859.0 | 2317.0 | 2765.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 785.0 | 67.0 | 111.0 | 187.0 | 397.0 | 1378.0 | 2110.0 | 2646.0 | 3172.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 998.0 | 97.0 | 156.0 | 255.0 | 519.0 | 1713.0 | 2589.0 | 3225.0 | 3849.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 1076.0 | 108.0 | 172.0 | 280.0 | 565.0 | 1838.0 | 2768.0 | 3442.0 | 4103.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 1142.0 | 109.0 | 177.0 | 290.0 | 593.0 | 1966.0 | 2974.0 | 3708.0 | 4427.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 1178.0 | 107.0 | 175.0 | 291.0 | 604.0 | 2045.0 | 3110.0 | 3888.0 | 4650.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 1253.0 | 108.0 | 178.0 | 300.0 | 634.0 | 2196.0 | 3360.0 | 4211.0 | 5047.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 1324.0 | 90.0 | 157.0 | 279.0 | 633.0 | 2409.0 | 3777.0 | 4788.0 | 5786.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 1307.0 | 91.0 | 158.0 | 280.0 | 629.0 | 2370.0 | 3706.0 | 4691.0 | 5664.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 1137.0 | 97.0 | 161.0 | 272.0 | 575.0 | 1993.0 | 3050.0 | 3824.0 | 4584.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 949.0 | 69.0 | 119.0 | 208.0 | 462.0 | 1708.0 | 2658.0 | 3357.0 | 4047.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 991.0 | 119.0 | 182.0 | 284.0 | 542.0 | 1641.0 | 2422.0 | 2984.0 | 3532.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 911.0 | 116.0 | 175.0 | 270.0 | 506.0 | 1494.0 | 2189.0 | 2688.0 | 3174.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 779.0 | 110.0 | 162.0 | 244.0 | 444.0 | 1254.0 | 1816.0 | 2217.0 | 2606.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 691.0 | 110.0 | 158.0 | 231.0 | 406.0 | 1088.0 | 1553.0 | 1883.0 | 2201.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 652.0 | 110.0 | 156.0 | 226.0 | 389.0 | 1015.0 | 1436.0 | 1734.0 | 2021.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 556.0 | 85.0 | 123.0 | 182.0 | 323.0 | 883.0 | 1266.0 | 1538.0 | 1801.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 493.0 | 73.0 | 106.0 | 158.0 | 284.0 | 788.0 | 1134.0 | 1381.0 | 1620.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 452.0 | 72.0 | 103.0 | 151.0 | 266.0 | 712.0 | 1015.0 | 1230.0 | 1438.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 429.0 | 62.0 | 91.0 | 136.0 | 246.0 | 687.0 | 991.0 | 1208.0 | 1419.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 380.0 | 65.0 | 92.0 | 133.0 | 227.0 | 589.0 | 832.0 | 1003.0 | 1169.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 344.0 | 56.0 | 80.0 | 116.0 | 203.0 | 539.0 | 767.0 | 928.0 | 1084.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 294.0 | 54.0 | 75.0 | 107.0 | 179.0 | 450.0 | 629.0 | 755.0 | 876.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 236.0 | 48.0 | 65.0 | 90.0 | 147.0 | 355.0 | 490.0 | 585.0 | 675.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 222.0 | 47.0 | 64.0 | 88.0 | 141.0 | 330.0 | 453.0 | 538.0 | 620.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 195.0 | 42.0 | 56.0 | 77.0 | 123.0 | 289.0 | 396.0 | 470.0 | 541.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 178.0 | 43.0 | 56.0 | 75.0 | 116.0 | 258.0 | 347.0 | 409.0 | 468.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 154.0 | 32.0 | 44.0 | 60.0 | 97.0 | 229.0 | 314.0 | 373.0 | 430.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
