Prediction 4509
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Distrito Federal |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 63.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 24.0 | 133.0 | 229.0 | 302.0 | 376.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 66.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 24.0 | 144.0 | 252.0 | 335.0 | 420.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 61.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 23.0 | 129.0 | 223.0 | 295.0 | 367.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 69.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 28.0 | 140.0 | 234.0 | 306.0 | 377.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 77.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 28.0 | 169.0 | 297.0 | 395.0 | 494.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 88.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 33.0 | 187.0 | 323.0 | 427.0 | 532.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 106.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 35.0 | 244.0 | 440.0 | 594.0 | 750.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 111.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 33.0 | 273.0 | 511.0 | 699.0 | 891.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 143.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 42.0 | 351.0 | 655.0 | 897.0 | 1144.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 167.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 46.0 | 431.0 | 825.0 | 1141.0 | 1466.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 170.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 44.0 | 449.0 | 874.0 | 1217.0 | 1570.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 176.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 494.0 | 989.0 | 1392.0 | 1811.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 60.0 | 41.0 | 44.0 | 47.0 | 53.0 | 67.0 | 73.0 | 77.0 | 81.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 329.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 68.0 | 1002.0 | 2095.0 | 3002.0 | 3950.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 356.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 78.0 | 1050.0 | 2160.0 | 3075.0 | 4029.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 454.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 86.0 | 1446.0 | 3094.0 | 4473.0 | 5920.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 561.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 92.0 | 1945.0 | 4346.0 | 6388.0 | 8548.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 661.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 108.0 | 2297.0 | 5136.0 | 7552.0 | 10107.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 723.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 130.0 | 2376.0 | 5169.0 | 7520.0 | 9995.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 722.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 130.0 | 2371.0 | 5156.0 | 7501.0 | 9969.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 772.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 135.0 | 2571.0 | 5631.0 | 8214.0 | 10936.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 840.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 22.0 | 167.0 | 2611.0 | 5522.0 | 7947.0 | 10486.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 849.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 28.0 | 186.0 | 2491.0 | 5115.0 | 7276.0 | 9527.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 880.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 37.0 | 213.0 | 2446.0 | 4883.0 | 6867.0 | 8923.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 889.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 42.0 | 226.0 | 2399.0 | 4715.0 | 6589.0 | 8526.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 836.0 | 7.0 | 21.0 | 61.0 | 254.0 | 2027.0 | 3761.0 | 5133.0 | 6535.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 869.0 | 7.0 | 21.0 | 62.0 | 262.0 | 2116.0 | 3936.0 | 5377.0 | 6850.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 928.0 | 11.0 | 30.0 | 80.0 | 303.0 | 2155.0 | 3904.0 | 5274.0 | 6668.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 868.0 | 11.0 | 30.0 | 79.0 | 289.0 | 1991.0 | 3581.0 | 4824.0 | 6087.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 843.0 | 17.0 | 39.0 | 93.0 | 306.0 | 1835.0 | 3204.0 | 4260.0 | 5328.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 838.0 | 25.0 | 53.0 | 115.0 | 333.0 | 1725.0 | 2915.0 | 3821.0 | 4731.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 804.0 | 33.0 | 66.0 | 131.0 | 344.0 | 1577.0 | 2588.0 | 3349.0 | 4109.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 731.0 | 21.0 | 46.0 | 99.0 | 290.0 | 1507.0 | 2548.0 | 3341.0 | 4137.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 644.0 | 18.0 | 39.0 | 85.0 | 252.0 | 1338.0 | 2273.0 | 2987.0 | 3705.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 569.0 | 15.0 | 33.0 | 74.0 | 221.0 | 1189.0 | 2026.0 | 2667.0 | 3310.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 488.0 | 13.0 | 29.0 | 65.0 | 191.0 | 1011.0 | 1716.0 | 2253.0 | 2793.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 403.0 | 15.0 | 31.0 | 63.0 | 169.0 | 800.0 | 1323.0 | 1718.0 | 2112.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 291.0 | 11.0 | 23.0 | 47.0 | 124.0 | 573.0 | 943.0 | 1221.0 | 1499.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 211.0 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 35.0 | 91.0 | 411.0 | 674.0 | 871.0 | 1067.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 175.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 28.0 | 75.0 | 342.0 | 562.0 | 727.0 | 891.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 152.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 28.0 | 69.0 | 286.0 | 459.0 | 587.0 | 715.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 126.0 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 25.0 | 59.0 | 232.0 | 366.0 | 465.0 | 563.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 104.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 19.0 | 47.0 | 198.0 | 318.0 | 408.0 | 497.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 100.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 17.0 | 44.0 | 192.0 | 311.0 | 400.0 | 488.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 82.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 35.0 | 162.0 | 267.0 | 345.0 | 424.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 82.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 35.0 | 161.0 | 265.0 | 343.0 | 421.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 69.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 27.0 | 142.0 | 240.0 | 314.0 | 389.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 68.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 26.0 | 145.0 | 249.0 | 329.0 | 410.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 69.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 24.0 | 154.0 | 270.0 | 361.0 | 452.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 76.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 29.0 | 160.0 | 274.0 | 361.0 | 449.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 66.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 23.0 | 147.0 | 259.0 | 346.0 | 434.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 77.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 30.0 | 159.0 | 269.0 | 352.0 | 436.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
