Prediction 4514
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso do Sul |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 52.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 29.0 | 83.0 | 121.0 | 147.0 | 173.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 62.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 34.0 | 101.0 | 149.0 | 183.0 | 216.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 65.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 32.0 | 117.0 | 181.0 | 228.0 | 275.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 77.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 38.0 | 136.0 | 208.0 | 262.0 | 314.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 101.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 22.0 | 50.0 | 181.0 | 280.0 | 353.0 | 425.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 113.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 51.0 | 214.0 | 342.0 | 438.0 | 533.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 147.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 63.0 | 288.0 | 473.0 | 612.0 | 750.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 158.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 20.0 | 61.0 | 332.0 | 566.0 | 746.0 | 926.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 179.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 22.0 | 68.0 | 377.0 | 645.0 | 851.0 | 1058.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 194.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 23.0 | 73.0 | 413.0 | 712.0 | 942.0 | 1174.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 159.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 15.0 | 54.0 | 363.0 | 650.0 | 874.0 | 1101.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 169.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 44.0 | 448.0 | 870.0 | 1211.0 | 1562.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 53.0 | 27.0 | 30.0 | 34.0 | 42.0 | 64.0 | 76.0 | 83.0 | 90.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 381.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 28.0 | 116.0 | 925.0 | 1715.0 | 2340.0 | 2979.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 509.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 33.0 | 147.0 | 1274.0 | 2404.0 | 3303.0 | 4226.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 641.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 39.0 | 181.0 | 1625.0 | 3090.0 | 4260.0 | 5461.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 749.0 | 5.0 | 15.0 | 46.0 | 212.0 | 1895.0 | 3601.0 | 4962.0 | 6360.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 822.0 | 6.0 | 18.0 | 55.0 | 242.0 | 2030.0 | 3806.0 | 5216.0 | 6661.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 849.0 | 7.0 | 21.0 | 61.0 | 257.0 | 2069.0 | 3847.0 | 5254.0 | 6694.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 902.0 | 11.0 | 28.0 | 76.0 | 293.0 | 2105.0 | 3823.0 | 5170.0 | 6541.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 892.0 | 12.0 | 31.0 | 82.0 | 299.0 | 2043.0 | 3670.0 | 4940.0 | 6231.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 934.0 | 12.0 | 32.0 | 85.0 | 311.0 | 2144.0 | 3857.0 | 5195.0 | 6555.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 957.0 | 14.0 | 36.0 | 91.0 | 326.0 | 2170.0 | 3877.0 | 5206.0 | 6556.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 1018.0 | 20.0 | 47.0 | 113.0 | 369.0 | 2215.0 | 3868.0 | 5143.0 | 6431.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 1027.0 | 29.0 | 63.0 | 138.0 | 404.0 | 2126.0 | 3603.0 | 4730.0 | 5862.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 968.0 | 30.0 | 64.0 | 137.0 | 389.0 | 1974.0 | 3317.0 | 4337.0 | 5360.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 934.0 | 36.0 | 72.0 | 147.0 | 394.0 | 1850.0 | 3055.0 | 3964.0 | 4872.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 906.0 | 32.0 | 66.0 | 136.0 | 374.0 | 1816.0 | 3021.0 | 3933.0 | 4846.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 838.0 | 36.0 | 70.0 | 139.0 | 362.0 | 1635.0 | 2675.0 | 3457.0 | 4236.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 746.0 | 31.0 | 61.0 | 121.0 | 319.0 | 1463.0 | 2402.0 | 3109.0 | 3815.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 688.0 | 23.0 | 48.0 | 100.0 | 281.0 | 1391.0 | 2325.0 | 3033.0 | 3742.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 590.0 | 19.0 | 39.0 | 83.0 | 238.0 | 1203.0 | 2021.0 | 2642.0 | 3265.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 465.0 | 14.0 | 30.0 | 64.0 | 185.0 | 954.0 | 1608.0 | 2107.0 | 2607.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 355.0 | 11.0 | 23.0 | 49.0 | 142.0 | 725.0 | 1220.0 | 1596.0 | 1974.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 257.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 36.0 | 104.0 | 525.0 | 881.0 | 1152.0 | 1423.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 200.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 26.0 | 77.0 | 418.0 | 712.0 | 936.0 | 1162.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 165.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 60.0 | 356.0 | 619.0 | 822.0 | 1026.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 149.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 21.0 | 61.0 | 301.0 | 503.0 | 656.0 | 809.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 125.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 51.0 | 253.0 | 423.0 | 552.0 | 682.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 102.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 44.0 | 200.0 | 328.0 | 425.0 | 521.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 80.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 33.0 | 161.0 | 269.0 | 350.0 | 432.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 65.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 134.0 | 226.0 | 296.0 | 365.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 59.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 26.0 | 114.0 | 184.0 | 237.0 | 289.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 60.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 28.0 | 110.0 | 174.0 | 222.0 | 268.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 51.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 88.0 | 134.0 | 168.0 | 200.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 48.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 24.0 | 85.0 | 132.0 | 166.0 | 199.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 44.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 23.0 | 74.0 | 110.0 | 136.0 | 161.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 44.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 23.0 | 76.0 | 116.0 | 145.0 | 173.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 39.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 65.0 | 95.0 | 117.0 | 138.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 47.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 25.0 | 78.0 | 115.0 | 142.0 | 168.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 48.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 27.0 | 79.0 | 115.0 | 140.0 | 165.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 53.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 31.0 | 84.0 | 120.0 | 145.0 | 170.0 |
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