Prediction 4516
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Pará |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 67.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 36.0 | 114.0 | 170.0 | 211.0 | 250.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 62.0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 35.0 | 98.0 | 141.0 | 172.0 | 201.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 57.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 32.0 | 92.0 | 134.0 | 165.0 | 194.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 70.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 37.0 | 119.0 | 177.0 | 220.0 | 261.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 82.0 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 25.0 | 46.0 | 133.0 | 193.0 | 236.0 | 278.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 96.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 23.0 | 49.0 | 168.0 | 256.0 | 321.0 | 384.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 110.0 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 25.0 | 54.0 | 195.0 | 301.0 | 379.0 | 456.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 115.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 23.0 | 54.0 | 211.0 | 333.0 | 424.0 | 513.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 122.0 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 25.0 | 58.0 | 221.0 | 347.0 | 440.0 | 532.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 109.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 22.0 | 51.0 | 201.0 | 318.0 | 405.0 | 490.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 80.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 35.0 | 151.0 | 244.0 | 313.0 | 382.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 79.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 35.0 | 151.0 | 243.0 | 313.0 | 382.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 27.0 | 49.0 | 65.0 | 82.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 164.0 | 20.0 | 31.0 | 48.0 | 91.0 | 271.0 | 398.0 | 490.0 | 579.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 211.0 | 27.0 | 41.0 | 63.0 | 118.0 | 344.0 | 502.0 | 615.0 | 725.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 259.0 | 38.0 | 55.0 | 83.0 | 149.0 | 414.0 | 596.0 | 725.0 | 851.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 295.0 | 32.0 | 50.0 | 80.0 | 158.0 | 496.0 | 739.0 | 915.0 | 1087.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 348.0 | 38.0 | 59.0 | 94.0 | 186.0 | 585.0 | 873.0 | 1081.0 | 1283.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 331.0 | 39.0 | 60.0 | 95.0 | 181.0 | 549.0 | 810.0 | 998.0 | 1181.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 374.0 | 49.0 | 73.0 | 112.0 | 209.0 | 609.0 | 890.0 | 1091.0 | 1286.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 343.0 | 43.0 | 65.0 | 101.0 | 190.0 | 563.0 | 826.0 | 1014.0 | 1197.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 364.0 | 55.0 | 80.0 | 118.0 | 211.0 | 580.0 | 832.0 | 1012.0 | 1185.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 375.0 | 77.0 | 104.0 | 144.0 | 235.0 | 563.0 | 776.0 | 926.0 | 1069.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 387.0 | 80.0 | 108.0 | 150.0 | 243.0 | 579.0 | 799.0 | 952.0 | 1098.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 337.0 | 56.0 | 79.0 | 115.0 | 200.0 | 527.0 | 748.0 | 904.0 | 1055.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 288.0 | 48.0 | 68.0 | 99.0 | 171.0 | 448.0 | 635.0 | 767.0 | 894.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 296.0 | 52.0 | 73.0 | 104.0 | 178.0 | 458.0 | 646.0 | 778.0 | 905.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 270.0 | 53.0 | 73.0 | 102.0 | 168.0 | 408.0 | 566.0 | 676.0 | 782.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 236.0 | 45.0 | 62.0 | 88.0 | 146.0 | 359.0 | 500.0 | 598.0 | 693.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 210.0 | 41.0 | 56.0 | 78.0 | 130.0 | 318.0 | 442.0 | 528.0 | 611.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 220.0 | 61.0 | 78.0 | 101.0 | 150.0 | 310.0 | 409.0 | 476.0 | 540.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 208.0 | 54.0 | 69.0 | 91.0 | 139.0 | 298.0 | 397.0 | 465.0 | 530.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 175.0 | 48.0 | 61.0 | 80.0 | 118.0 | 247.0 | 326.0 | 380.0 | 431.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 137.0 | 41.0 | 51.0 | 66.0 | 95.0 | 189.0 | 246.0 | 285.0 | 321.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 109.0 | 32.0 | 40.0 | 51.0 | 75.0 | 151.0 | 197.0 | 229.0 | 259.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 104.0 | 24.0 | 32.0 | 43.0 | 68.0 | 152.0 | 205.0 | 242.0 | 277.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 100.0 | 18.0 | 25.0 | 36.0 | 61.0 | 153.0 | 215.0 | 258.0 | 299.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 84.0 | 17.0 | 23.0 | 33.0 | 53.0 | 125.0 | 172.0 | 205.0 | 237.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 83.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 29.0 | 50.0 | 128.0 | 180.0 | 217.0 | 253.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 72.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 24.0 | 43.0 | 114.0 | 161.0 | 195.0 | 228.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 63.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | 34.0 | 105.0 | 154.0 | 190.0 | 225.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 66.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 19.0 | 36.0 | 107.0 | 157.0 | 192.0 | 227.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 65.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 22.0 | 38.0 | 102.0 | 146.0 | 176.0 | 206.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 72.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 39.0 | 120.0 | 177.0 | 219.0 | 259.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 77.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 21.0 | 41.0 | 129.0 | 193.0 | 238.0 | 283.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 75.0 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 41.0 | 124.0 | 183.0 | 225.0 | 266.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 74.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 22.0 | 42.0 | 120.0 | 175.0 | 214.0 | 252.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 66.0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 38.0 | 107.0 | 154.0 | 188.0 | 221.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 63.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 33.0 | 106.0 | 158.0 | 196.0 | 233.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 64.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 19.0 | 35.0 | 104.0 | 151.0 | 185.0 | 218.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 61.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 32.0 | 104.0 | 156.0 | 194.0 | 230.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 62.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 19.0 | 35.0 | 100.0 | 145.0 | 177.0 | 208.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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