Prediction 4517
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Paraíba |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 90.0 | 14.0 | 21.0 | 30.0 | 53.0 | 140.0 | 199.0 | 240.0 | 280.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 81.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 29.0 | 49.0 | 123.0 | 172.0 | 207.0 | 240.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 74.0 | 15.0 | 21.0 | 29.0 | 46.0 | 109.0 | 150.0 | 178.0 | 205.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 75.0 | 16.0 | 22.0 | 30.0 | 48.0 | 110.0 | 149.0 | 177.0 | 203.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 74.0 | 21.0 | 26.0 | 34.0 | 51.0 | 104.0 | 137.0 | 160.0 | 181.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 75.0 | 16.0 | 22.0 | 30.0 | 48.0 | 111.0 | 150.0 | 178.0 | 205.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 72.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 | 23.0 | 41.0 | 116.0 | 168.0 | 204.0 | 240.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 75.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 17.0 | 38.0 | 132.0 | 202.0 | 253.0 | 304.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 90.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 39.0 | 175.0 | 287.0 | 371.0 | 454.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 82.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 35.0 | 160.0 | 261.0 | 338.0 | 414.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 74.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 30.0 | 152.0 | 255.0 | 333.0 | 412.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 60.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 124.0 | 210.0 | 275.0 | 341.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 26.0 | 36.0 | 43.0 | 50.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 82.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 35.0 | 162.0 | 267.0 | 347.0 | 426.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 92.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 41.0 | 178.0 | 288.0 | 371.0 | 453.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 107.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 43.0 | 217.0 | 364.0 | 475.0 | 586.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 132.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 20.0 | 55.0 | 263.0 | 436.0 | 566.0 | 697.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 154.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 33.0 | 74.0 | 279.0 | 436.0 | 552.0 | 666.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 170.0 | 11.0 | 20.0 | 36.0 | 81.0 | 309.0 | 484.0 | 614.0 | 742.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 208.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 32.0 | 87.0 | 412.0 | 681.0 | 884.0 | 1086.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 233.0 | 10.0 | 20.0 | 40.0 | 102.0 | 450.0 | 733.0 | 945.0 | 1156.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 275.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 47.0 | 121.0 | 530.0 | 861.0 | 1108.0 | 1355.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 299.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 49.0 | 128.0 | 585.0 | 959.0 | 1241.0 | 1521.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 333.0 | 20.0 | 36.0 | 66.0 | 155.0 | 615.0 | 973.0 | 1239.0 | 1502.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 331.0 | 20.0 | 36.0 | 67.0 | 155.0 | 611.0 | 966.0 | 1229.0 | 1490.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 327.0 | 19.0 | 35.0 | 64.0 | 151.0 | 609.0 | 968.0 | 1234.0 | 1498.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 365.0 | 28.0 | 48.0 | 83.0 | 181.0 | 650.0 | 1004.0 | 1264.0 | 1519.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 392.0 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 101.0 | 205.0 | 672.0 | 1014.0 | 1262.0 | 1505.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 405.0 | 52.0 | 79.0 | 121.0 | 226.0 | 660.0 | 965.0 | 1183.0 | 1396.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 409.0 | 64.0 | 93.0 | 136.0 | 240.0 | 645.0 | 920.0 | 1116.0 | 1305.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 437.0 | 53.0 | 81.0 | 126.0 | 240.0 | 722.0 | 1064.0 | 1309.0 | 1548.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 463.0 | 60.0 | 90.0 | 138.0 | 258.0 | 756.0 | 1105.0 | 1356.0 | 1599.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 478.0 | 64.0 | 96.0 | 146.0 | 270.0 | 775.0 | 1127.0 | 1380.0 | 1624.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 424.0 | 69.0 | 99.0 | 144.0 | 251.0 | 665.0 | 945.0 | 1143.0 | 1334.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 410.0 | 62.0 | 90.0 | 133.0 | 238.0 | 652.0 | 936.0 | 1138.0 | 1333.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 396.0 | 64.0 | 92.0 | 134.0 | 234.0 | 620.0 | 882.0 | 1068.0 | 1247.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 350.0 | 62.0 | 87.0 | 125.0 | 212.0 | 539.0 | 758.0 | 912.0 | 1060.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 313.0 | 57.0 | 79.0 | 113.0 | 190.0 | 481.0 | 675.0 | 811.0 | 942.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 306.0 | 50.0 | 71.0 | 104.0 | 181.0 | 478.0 | 679.0 | 821.0 | 959.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 298.0 | 51.0 | 72.0 | 104.0 | 179.0 | 462.0 | 652.0 | 787.0 | 916.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 277.0 | 46.0 | 66.0 | 95.0 | 165.0 | 432.0 | 612.0 | 739.0 | 862.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 260.0 | 46.0 | 65.0 | 92.0 | 157.0 | 401.0 | 565.0 | 680.0 | 790.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 229.0 | 47.0 | 63.0 | 88.0 | 143.0 | 344.0 | 474.0 | 565.0 | 653.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 210.0 | 37.0 | 52.0 | 75.0 | 127.0 | 324.0 | 456.0 | 548.0 | 637.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 193.0 | 31.0 | 45.0 | 66.0 | 114.0 | 302.0 | 428.0 | 518.0 | 604.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 185.0 | 30.0 | 43.0 | 63.0 | 110.0 | 288.0 | 409.0 | 494.0 | 577.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 151.0 | 28.0 | 39.0 | 55.0 | 92.0 | 230.0 | 321.0 | 385.0 | 446.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 147.0 | 22.0 | 32.0 | 48.0 | 85.0 | 235.0 | 337.0 | 410.0 | 480.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 130.0 | 17.0 | 26.0 | 39.0 | 73.0 | 212.0 | 308.0 | 378.0 | 445.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 115.0 | 15.0 | 23.0 | 35.0 | 65.0 | 187.0 | 273.0 | 334.0 | 393.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 110.0 | 15.0 | 23.0 | 34.0 | 63.0 | 177.0 | 255.0 | 311.0 | 366.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 93.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 51.0 | 153.0 | 225.0 | 276.0 | 326.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
