Prediction 4518
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Pernambuco |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 200.0 | 25.0 | 38.0 | 59.0 | 111.0 | 329.0 | 484.0 | 594.0 | 702.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 206.0 | 21.0 | 33.0 | 54.0 | 109.0 | 351.0 | 527.0 | 655.0 | 780.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 216.0 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 46.0 | 104.0 | 393.0 | 615.0 | 779.0 | 941.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 223.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 24.0 | 81.0 | 487.0 | 850.0 | 1131.0 | 1415.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 248.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 24.0 | 85.0 | 558.0 | 992.0 | 1330.0 | 1673.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 239.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 16.0 | 70.0 | 591.0 | 1110.0 | 1522.0 | 1944.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 235.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 21.0 | 78.0 | 539.0 | 970.0 | 1307.0 | 1649.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 249.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 | 69.0 | 638.0 | 1220.0 | 1685.0 | 2164.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 252.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 16.0 | 72.0 | 633.0 | 1197.0 | 1647.0 | 2108.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 256.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 19.0 | 79.0 | 613.0 | 1129.0 | 1536.0 | 1952.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 199.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 17.0 | 65.0 | 462.0 | 835.0 | 1127.0 | 1424.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 147.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 45.0 | 353.0 | 651.0 | 886.0 | 1126.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 115.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 26.0 | 57.0 | 205.0 | 317.0 | 399.0 | 480.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 224.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 13.0 | 63.0 | 570.0 | 1085.0 | 1496.0 | 1919.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 240.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 16.0 | 70.0 | 595.0 | 1119.0 | 1536.0 | 1963.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 256.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 18.0 | 77.0 | 623.0 | 1159.0 | 1583.0 | 2016.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 286.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 22.0 | 90.0 | 680.0 | 1247.0 | 1694.0 | 2149.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 341.0 | 5.0 | 13.0 | 34.0 | 118.0 | 763.0 | 1354.0 | 1813.0 | 2278.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 395.0 | 6.0 | 15.0 | 38.0 | 136.0 | 890.0 | 1584.0 | 2124.0 | 2672.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 442.0 | 11.0 | 25.0 | 57.0 | 171.0 | 924.0 | 1577.0 | 2076.0 | 2578.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 479.0 | 14.0 | 30.0 | 65.0 | 190.0 | 985.0 | 1663.0 | 2180.0 | 2698.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 531.0 | 17.0 | 35.0 | 75.0 | 214.0 | 1083.0 | 1819.0 | 2379.0 | 2939.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 605.0 | 28.0 | 54.0 | 105.0 | 266.0 | 1164.0 | 1888.0 | 2430.0 | 2970.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 656.0 | 35.0 | 66.0 | 123.0 | 298.0 | 1235.0 | 1978.0 | 2532.0 | 3081.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 693.0 | 44.0 | 79.0 | 142.0 | 327.0 | 1271.0 | 2003.0 | 2544.0 | 3080.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 668.0 | 45.0 | 79.0 | 140.0 | 319.0 | 1218.0 | 1912.0 | 2424.0 | 2930.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 768.0 | 57.0 | 97.0 | 170.0 | 375.0 | 1379.0 | 2143.0 | 2706.0 | 3260.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 766.0 | 60.0 | 101.0 | 174.0 | 379.0 | 1363.0 | 2106.0 | 2652.0 | 3189.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 823.0 | 82.0 | 132.0 | 214.0 | 432.0 | 1405.0 | 2114.0 | 2629.0 | 3133.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 782.0 | 86.0 | 134.0 | 214.0 | 419.0 | 1315.0 | 1959.0 | 2425.0 | 2880.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 813.0 | 90.0 | 140.0 | 223.0 | 437.0 | 1366.0 | 2035.0 | 2519.0 | 2991.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 821.0 | 115.0 | 170.0 | 256.0 | 467.0 | 1324.0 | 1918.0 | 2342.0 | 2754.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 806.0 | 105.0 | 157.0 | 241.0 | 450.0 | 1317.0 | 1925.0 | 2362.0 | 2786.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 716.0 | 85.0 | 131.0 | 204.0 | 391.0 | 1189.0 | 1756.0 | 2165.0 | 2563.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 645.0 | 54.0 | 90.0 | 152.0 | 324.0 | 1136.0 | 1744.0 | 2189.0 | 2626.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 662.0 | 75.0 | 116.0 | 184.0 | 358.0 | 1108.0 | 1645.0 | 2032.0 | 2411.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 584.0 | 91.0 | 131.0 | 193.0 | 341.0 | 924.0 | 1322.0 | 1605.0 | 1879.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 504.0 | 70.0 | 104.0 | 157.0 | 287.0 | 812.0 | 1176.0 | 1437.0 | 1689.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 477.0 | 56.0 | 86.0 | 135.0 | 260.0 | 792.0 | 1170.0 | 1442.0 | 1708.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 453.0 | 51.0 | 79.0 | 126.0 | 245.0 | 758.0 | 1125.0 | 1391.0 | 1649.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 428.0 | 57.0 | 86.0 | 131.0 | 241.0 | 695.0 | 1012.0 | 1238.0 | 1458.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 399.0 | 58.0 | 86.0 | 128.0 | 230.0 | 638.0 | 919.0 | 1119.0 | 1313.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 336.0 | 52.0 | 75.0 | 111.0 | 196.0 | 530.0 | 758.0 | 919.0 | 1075.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 331.0 | 59.0 | 83.0 | 119.0 | 200.0 | 509.0 | 714.0 | 858.0 | 997.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 321.0 | 63.0 | 86.0 | 120.0 | 199.0 | 486.0 | 674.0 | 807.0 | 933.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 285.0 | 53.0 | 74.0 | 104.0 | 174.0 | 436.0 | 609.0 | 731.0 | 848.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 273.0 | 46.0 | 66.0 | 95.0 | 163.0 | 424.0 | 600.0 | 724.0 | 843.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 246.0 | 33.0 | 49.0 | 75.0 | 139.0 | 399.0 | 581.0 | 711.0 | 837.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 243.0 | 30.0 | 46.0 | 71.0 | 135.0 | 399.0 | 585.0 | 719.0 | 849.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 227.0 | 26.0 | 41.0 | 64.0 | 124.0 | 377.0 | 558.0 | 688.0 | 815.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 212.0 | 29.0 | 43.0 | 66.0 | 120.0 | 343.0 | 497.0 | 607.0 | 714.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 215.0 | 25.0 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 118.0 | 357.0 | 527.0 | 650.0 | 769.0 |
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