Prediction 4519
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Piauí |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 35.0 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 62.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 17.0 | 32.0 | 42.0 | 48.0 | 53.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 20.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 14.0 | 28.0 | 35.0 | 40.0 | 45.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 13.0 | 32.0 | 43.0 | 51.0 | 59.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 24.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 38.0 | 53.0 | 64.0 | 75.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 26.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 16.0 | 39.0 | 53.0 | 63.0 | 72.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 26.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | 38.0 | 51.0 | 60.0 | 68.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 29.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 17.0 | 44.0 | 62.0 | 75.0 | 87.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 27.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 | 43.0 | 60.0 | 72.0 | 84.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 27.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 | 43.0 | 61.0 | 73.0 | 86.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 23.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 39.0 | 58.0 | 71.0 | 85.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 35.0 | 54.0 | 68.0 | 82.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 30.0 | 50.0 | 72.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 50.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 30.0 | 77.0 | 108.0 | 130.0 | 151.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 62.0 | 10.0 | 14.0 | 21.0 | 37.0 | 97.0 | 137.0 | 166.0 | 193.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 70.0 | 19.0 | 24.0 | 31.0 | 47.0 | 98.0 | 130.0 | 152.0 | 172.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 82.0 | 21.0 | 27.0 | 36.0 | 54.0 | 117.0 | 155.0 | 182.0 | 207.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 103.0 | 18.0 | 26.0 | 37.0 | 62.0 | 159.0 | 223.0 | 268.0 | 311.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 116.0 | 16.0 | 24.0 | 37.0 | 67.0 | 187.0 | 269.0 | 328.0 | 385.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 132.0 | 18.0 | 27.0 | 41.0 | 75.0 | 212.0 | 307.0 | 375.0 | 441.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 147.0 | 17.0 | 26.0 | 41.0 | 80.0 | 245.0 | 362.0 | 447.0 | 530.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 171.0 | 21.0 | 33.0 | 50.0 | 95.0 | 280.0 | 410.0 | 503.0 | 594.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 203.0 | 22.0 | 34.0 | 55.0 | 108.0 | 341.0 | 509.0 | 630.0 | 749.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 240.0 | 22.0 | 36.0 | 59.0 | 123.0 | 416.0 | 632.0 | 790.0 | 944.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 266.0 | 15.0 | 28.0 | 52.0 | 124.0 | 495.0 | 785.0 | 1001.0 | 1215.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 269.0 | 11.0 | 22.0 | 43.0 | 115.0 | 529.0 | 869.0 | 1124.0 | 1379.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 310.0 | 15.0 | 29.0 | 56.0 | 139.0 | 589.0 | 949.0 | 1218.0 | 1485.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 336.0 | 22.0 | 40.0 | 71.0 | 161.0 | 613.0 | 961.0 | 1218.0 | 1472.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 356.0 | 19.0 | 36.0 | 67.0 | 163.0 | 667.0 | 1066.0 | 1362.0 | 1656.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 369.0 | 25.0 | 44.0 | 78.0 | 177.0 | 671.0 | 1050.0 | 1330.0 | 1607.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 350.0 | 31.0 | 51.0 | 86.0 | 179.0 | 609.0 | 928.0 | 1160.0 | 1388.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 378.0 | 43.0 | 67.0 | 105.0 | 204.0 | 631.0 | 936.0 | 1156.0 | 1371.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 361.0 | 53.0 | 78.0 | 116.0 | 208.0 | 576.0 | 830.0 | 1010.0 | 1185.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 300.0 | 42.0 | 62.0 | 94.0 | 171.0 | 482.0 | 698.0 | 852.0 | 1001.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 260.0 | 30.0 | 47.0 | 74.0 | 142.0 | 433.0 | 640.0 | 789.0 | 934.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 257.0 | 41.0 | 59.0 | 87.0 | 151.0 | 404.0 | 574.0 | 696.0 | 812.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 230.0 | 37.0 | 53.0 | 78.0 | 136.0 | 360.0 | 512.0 | 620.0 | 724.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 196.0 | 31.0 | 45.0 | 66.0 | 116.0 | 308.0 | 438.0 | 531.0 | 620.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 165.0 | 28.0 | 40.0 | 57.0 | 99.0 | 257.0 | 363.0 | 437.0 | 510.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 146.0 | 28.0 | 38.0 | 54.0 | 90.0 | 222.0 | 310.0 | 371.0 | 429.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 124.0 | 21.0 | 30.0 | 44.0 | 75.0 | 191.0 | 269.0 | 324.0 | 376.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 111.0 | 19.0 | 27.0 | 39.0 | 66.0 | 171.0 | 241.0 | 291.0 | 339.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 94.0 | 20.0 | 27.0 | 37.0 | 60.0 | 139.0 | 189.0 | 225.0 | 258.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 87.0 | 23.0 | 30.0 | 39.0 | 59.0 | 122.0 | 162.0 | 189.0 | 214.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 76.0 | 18.0 | 24.0 | 32.0 | 50.0 | 109.0 | 146.0 | 171.0 | 195.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 59.0 | 18.0 | 23.0 | 29.0 | 41.0 | 81.0 | 105.0 | 121.0 | 137.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 59.0 | 19.0 | 24.0 | 30.0 | 42.0 | 80.0 | 102.0 | 117.0 | 131.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 49.0 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 21.0 | 33.0 | 70.0 | 93.0 | 108.0 | 123.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 43.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 18.0 | 28.0 | 63.0 | 85.0 | 100.0 | 114.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 36.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 24.0 | 50.0 | 65.0 | 76.0 | 85.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 32.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 22.0 | 46.0 | 61.0 | 71.0 | 81.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 27.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 38.0 | 50.0 | 58.0 | 65.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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