Prediction 4520
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Paraná |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 88.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 33.0 | 187.0 | 321.0 | 425.0 | 529.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 104.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 13.0 | 40.0 | 220.0 | 377.0 | 497.0 | 618.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 116.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 47.0 | 235.0 | 393.0 | 513.0 | 633.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 128.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 51.0 | 264.0 | 446.0 | 585.0 | 724.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 155.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 58.0 | 331.0 | 572.0 | 757.0 | 944.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 167.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 59.0 | 369.0 | 649.0 | 865.0 | 1084.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 222.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 24.0 | 81.0 | 484.0 | 845.0 | 1123.0 | 1404.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 250.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 31.0 | 95.0 | 528.0 | 904.0 | 1193.0 | 1483.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 299.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 33.0 | 108.0 | 651.0 | 1137.0 | 1513.0 | 1892.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 367.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | 32.0 | 121.0 | 845.0 | 1524.0 | 2055.0 | 2595.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 343.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 30.0 | 113.0 | 790.0 | 1425.0 | 1922.0 | 2427.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 320.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 28.0 | 106.0 | 737.0 | 1329.0 | 1793.0 | 2264.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 133.0 | 45.0 | 55.0 | 68.0 | 95.0 | 179.0 | 228.0 | 261.0 | 292.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 429.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 22.0 | 114.0 | 1129.0 | 2190.0 | 3044.0 | 3924.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 568.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 24.0 | 138.0 | 1570.0 | 3126.0 | 4391.0 | 5702.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 751.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 28.0 | 174.0 | 2141.0 | 4330.0 | 6121.0 | 7982.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 919.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 31.0 | 204.0 | 2682.0 | 5491.0 | 7801.0 | 10206.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 1135.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 | 50.0 | 279.0 | 3120.0 | 6193.0 | 8689.0 | 11273.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 1415.0 | 4.0 | 14.0 | 55.0 | 332.0 | 3994.0 | 8040.0 | 11345.0 | 14775.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 1768.0 | 4.0 | 15.0 | 62.0 | 396.0 | 5132.0 | 10481.0 | 14874.0 | 19446.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 2031.0 | 6.0 | 22.0 | 83.0 | 485.0 | 5685.0 | 11392.0 | 16045.0 | 20871.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 2350.0 | 7.0 | 27.0 | 100.0 | 571.0 | 6506.0 | 12964.0 | 18218.0 | 23661.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 2735.0 | 7.0 | 28.0 | 107.0 | 642.0 | 7725.0 | 15555.0 | 21950.0 | 28589.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 3146.0 | 10.0 | 38.0 | 138.0 | 773.0 | 8654.0 | 17183.0 | 24112.0 | 31287.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 3513.0 | 11.0 | 42.0 | 153.0 | 862.0 | 9672.0 | 19216.0 | 26971.0 | 35001.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 3608.0 | 13.0 | 46.0 | 163.0 | 900.0 | 9842.0 | 19455.0 | 27252.0 | 35318.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 3832.0 | 13.0 | 47.0 | 171.0 | 949.0 | 10495.0 | 20792.0 | 29150.0 | 37801.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 3835.0 | 13.0 | 48.0 | 172.0 | 953.0 | 10484.0 | 20750.0 | 29079.0 | 37698.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 3539.0 | 11.0 | 41.0 | 150.0 | 858.0 | 9812.0 | 19567.0 | 27505.0 | 35730.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 3100.0 | 12.0 | 42.0 | 146.0 | 786.0 | 8375.0 | 16471.0 | 23024.0 | 29797.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 2870.0 | 7.0 | 27.0 | 105.0 | 656.0 | 8232.0 | 16709.0 | 23656.0 | 30878.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 2543.0 | 4.0 | 18.0 | 77.0 | 536.0 | 7644.0 | 15896.0 | 22722.0 | 29849.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 1937.0 | 2.0 | 11.0 | 51.0 | 386.0 | 6010.0 | 12703.0 | 18275.0 | 24109.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 1367.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 41.0 | 289.0 | 4102.0 | 8522.0 | 12178.0 | 15995.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 840.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 26.0 | 179.0 | 2507.0 | 5196.0 | 7417.0 | 9735.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 553.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 16.0 | 114.0 | 1678.0 | 3507.0 | 5023.0 | 6608.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 488.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 99.0 | 1496.0 | 3141.0 | 4507.0 | 5936.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 364.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 70.0 | 1153.0 | 2464.0 | 3559.0 | 4709.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 292.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 65.0 | 848.0 | 1732.0 | 2458.0 | 3214.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 207.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 47.0 | 593.0 | 1205.0 | 1706.0 | 2227.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 153.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 40.0 | 404.0 | 786.0 | 1093.0 | 1409.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 117.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 318.0 | 630.0 | 882.0 | 1143.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 27.0 | 296.0 | 587.0 | 822.0 | 1066.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 27.0 | 245.0 | 467.0 | 644.0 | 826.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 23.0 | 202.0 | 383.0 | 526.0 | 673.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 75.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 175.0 | 317.0 | 428.0 | 541.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 76.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 177.0 | 320.0 | 431.0 | 545.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 71.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 25.0 | 154.0 | 268.0 | 356.0 | 446.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 71.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 25.0 | 157.0 | 276.0 | 369.0 | 462.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 75.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 25.0 | 173.0 | 310.0 | 418.0 | 527.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 75.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 26.0 | 170.0 | 302.0 | 406.0 | 510.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 82.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 30.0 | 178.0 | 310.0 | 412.0 | 514.0 |
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