Prediction 4523
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | Rondônia |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 19.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 33.0 | 49.0 | 60.0 | 72.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 25.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 14.0 | 40.0 | 59.0 | 72.0 | 85.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 43.0 | 65.0 | 81.0 | 97.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 35.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 60.0 | 92.0 | 115.0 | 138.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 37.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 64.0 | 98.0 | 122.0 | 146.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 52.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 27.0 | 90.0 | 136.0 | 170.0 | 203.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 57.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 28.0 | 102.0 | 159.0 | 201.0 | 242.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 64.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 29.0 | 120.0 | 191.0 | 245.0 | 297.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 69.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 33.0 | 124.0 | 192.0 | 243.0 | 293.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 65.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 31.0 | 120.0 | 189.0 | 241.0 | 291.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 53.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 27.0 | 94.0 | 144.0 | 180.0 | 216.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 15.0 | 101.0 | 181.0 | 243.0 | 305.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 19.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 26.0 | 34.0 | 39.0 | 44.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 158.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 43.0 | 412.0 | 794.0 | 1100.0 | 1416.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 171.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 46.0 | 444.0 | 855.0 | 1186.0 | 1526.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 181.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 51.0 | 459.0 | 873.0 | 1204.0 | 1543.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 171.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 11.0 | 50.0 | 426.0 | 803.0 | 1103.0 | 1410.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 190.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 17.0 | 63.0 | 435.0 | 782.0 | 1054.0 | 1329.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 185.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 18.0 | 63.0 | 416.0 | 741.0 | 993.0 | 1249.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 194.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 | 23.0 | 73.0 | 414.0 | 713.0 | 942.0 | 1173.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 169.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 62.0 | 365.0 | 636.0 | 844.0 | 1054.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 180.0 | 5.0 | 12.0 | 25.0 | 72.0 | 368.0 | 618.0 | 808.0 | 999.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 168.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 64.0 | 355.0 | 609.0 | 803.0 | 999.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 164.0 | 8.0 | 16.0 | 30.0 | 74.0 | 309.0 | 495.0 | 633.0 | 771.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 146.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 | 29.0 | 68.0 | 270.0 | 427.0 | 543.0 | 658.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 128.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 25.0 | 59.0 | 239.0 | 379.0 | 483.0 | 586.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 122.0 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 31.0 | 63.0 | 209.0 | 316.0 | 394.0 | 470.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 102.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 21.0 | 49.0 | 187.0 | 294.0 | 373.0 | 452.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 93.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 22.0 | 47.0 | 165.0 | 253.0 | 318.0 | 381.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 78.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 39.0 | 139.0 | 214.0 | 270.0 | 324.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 79.0 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 40.0 | 138.0 | 211.0 | 264.0 | 317.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 72.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 17.0 | 36.0 | 125.0 | 191.0 | 239.0 | 286.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 61.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 16.0 | 32.0 | 104.0 | 156.0 | 194.0 | 231.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 45.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 22.0 | 80.0 | 122.0 | 154.0 | 185.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 41.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 20.0 | 73.0 | 113.0 | 142.0 | 171.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 40.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 22.0 | 68.0 | 100.0 | 124.0 | 147.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 36.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 62.0 | 93.0 | 115.0 | 137.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 35.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | 62.0 | 96.0 | 121.0 | 146.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 31.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | 54.0 | 81.0 | 102.0 | 122.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 29.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 15.0 | 49.0 | 74.0 | 92.0 | 109.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 26.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 13.0 | 45.0 | 69.0 | 87.0 | 104.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 24.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 40.0 | 60.0 | 74.0 | 88.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 11.0 | 38.0 | 59.0 | 74.0 | 88.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 22.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 37.0 | 55.0 | 67.0 | 80.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 21.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 12.0 | 34.0 | 49.0 | 60.0 | 70.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 29.0 | 43.0 | 53.0 | 63.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 25.0 | 36.0 | 45.0 | 53.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 14.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 22.0 | 32.0 | 38.0 | 45.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 15.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 24.0 | 35.0 | 43.0 | 50.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 22.0 | 33.0 | 41.0 | 48.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 28.0 | 43.0 | 53.0 | 63.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 17.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 27.0 | 39.0 | 48.0 | 56.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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