Prediction 4528
| Model | Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline |
|---|---|
| Author | Bento Lab |
| ADM 1 | São Paulo |
Description:
Forecast (Cornell PEH - NegBinom Baseline model). Authored by Tijs W. Alleman & Ana I. Bento.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 355.0 | 18.0 | 34.0 | 64.0 | 159.0 | 676.0 | 1088.0 | 1397.0 | 1703.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 387.0 | 18.0 | 35.0 | 68.0 | 172.0 | 742.0 | 1200.0 | 1543.0 | 1884.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 394.0 | 20.0 | 37.0 | 71.0 | 177.0 | 749.0 | 1207.0 | 1549.0 | 1888.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 433.0 | 22.0 | 41.0 | 79.0 | 194.0 | 823.0 | 1326.0 | 1701.0 | 2074.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 488.0 | 25.0 | 46.0 | 88.0 | 219.0 | 929.0 | 1497.0 | 1921.0 | 2342.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 535.0 | 27.0 | 51.0 | 97.0 | 240.0 | 1018.0 | 1639.0 | 2103.0 | 2564.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 645.0 | 25.0 | 51.0 | 103.0 | 273.0 | 1273.0 | 2097.0 | 2717.0 | 3337.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 754.0 | 30.0 | 60.0 | 120.0 | 319.0 | 1487.0 | 2450.0 | 3175.0 | 3900.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 905.0 | 29.0 | 60.0 | 128.0 | 365.0 | 1843.0 | 3095.0 | 4046.0 | 4999.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 1049.0 | 25.0 | 57.0 | 129.0 | 398.0 | 2221.0 | 3815.0 | 5038.0 | 6269.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 1057.0 | 27.0 | 60.0 | 134.0 | 406.0 | 2223.0 | 3802.0 | 5010.0 | 6227.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 1113.0 | 19.0 | 47.0 | 115.0 | 393.0 | 2466.0 | 4349.0 | 5808.0 | 7285.0 |
| 2025-12-28 | 761.0 | 11.0 | 29.0 | 74.0 | 261.0 | 1718.0 | 3060.0 | 4105.0 | 5164.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2028.0 | 29.0 | 73.0 | 189.0 | 684.0 | 4621.0 | 8281.0 | 11136.0 | 14036.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 2637.0 | 39.0 | 99.0 | 251.0 | 898.0 | 5976.0 | 10675.0 | 14336.0 | 18051.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 3413.0 | 43.0 | 113.0 | 298.0 | 1121.0 | 7905.0 | 14296.0 | 19299.0 | 24389.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 4319.0 | 45.0 | 124.0 | 343.0 | 1361.0 | 10256.0 | 18806.0 | 25538.0 | 32405.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 5448.0 | 75.0 | 193.0 | 499.0 | 1824.0 | 12474.0 | 22412.0 | 30171.0 | 38056.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 6432.0 | 93.0 | 236.0 | 602.0 | 2174.0 | 14640.0 | 26215.0 | 35242.0 | 44407.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 7736.0 | 111.0 | 283.0 | 723.0 | 2613.0 | 17615.0 | 31550.0 | 42418.0 | 53453.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 8776.0 | 116.0 | 300.0 | 784.0 | 2907.0 | 20221.0 | 36460.0 | 49159.0 | 62070.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 10223.0 | 122.0 | 325.0 | 868.0 | 3316.0 | 23861.0 | 43337.0 | 58611.0 | 74163.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 11427.0 | 125.0 | 339.0 | 926.0 | 3634.0 | 26991.0 | 49349.0 | 66930.0 | 84854.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 12905.0 | 144.0 | 389.0 | 1057.0 | 4122.0 | 30404.0 | 55510.0 | 75239.0 | 95348.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 13784.0 | 132.0 | 370.0 | 1044.0 | 4260.0 | 33126.0 | 61152.0 | 83273.0 | 105868.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 13853.0 | 162.0 | 433.0 | 1164.0 | 4473.0 | 32422.0 | 58977.0 | 79815.0 | 101039.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 14975.0 | 169.0 | 454.0 | 1232.0 | 4792.0 | 35241.0 | 64299.0 | 87129.0 | 110395.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 15032.0 | 152.0 | 421.0 | 1170.0 | 4700.0 | 35870.0 | 65957.0 | 89668.0 | 113869.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 14611.0 | 171.0 | 455.0 | 1225.0 | 4713.0 | 34219.0 | 62266.0 | 84278.0 | 106699.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 13491.0 | 128.0 | 360.0 | 1016.0 | 4160.0 | 32466.0 | 59977.0 | 81700.0 | 103890.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 12303.0 | 96.0 | 283.0 | 837.0 | 3636.0 | 30371.0 | 56900.0 | 77964.0 | 99540.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 10778.0 | 51.0 | 170.0 | 565.0 | 2857.0 | 28376.0 | 55049.0 | 76521.0 | 98659.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 8975.0 | 33.0 | 118.0 | 415.0 | 2257.0 | 24363.0 | 48041.0 | 67224.0 | 87062.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 6360.0 | 20.0 | 75.0 | 273.0 | 1551.0 | 17574.0 | 34981.0 | 49136.0 | 63800.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 4313.0 | 20.0 | 67.0 | 224.0 | 1140.0 | 11372.0 | 22080.0 | 30703.0 | 39595.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 3010.0 | 13.0 | 44.0 | 151.0 | 783.0 | 8012.0 | 15632.0 | 21780.0 | 28126.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 2457.0 | 9.0 | 31.0 | 112.0 | 614.0 | 6695.0 | 13227.0 | 18523.0 | 24002.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 1906.0 | 6.0 | 22.0 | 82.0 | 465.0 | 5264.0 | 10476.0 | 14714.0 | 19104.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 1442.0 | 6.0 | 22.0 | 74.0 | 380.0 | 3809.0 | 7402.0 | 10297.0 | 13283.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 979.0 | 5.0 | 17.0 | 56.0 | 269.0 | 2523.0 | 4839.0 | 6695.0 | 8605.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 798.0 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 63.0 | 252.0 | 1893.0 | 3469.0 | 4710.0 | 5975.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 638.0 | 8.0 | 21.0 | 55.0 | 208.0 | 1483.0 | 2687.0 | 3630.0 | 4589.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 546.0 | 7.0 | 18.0 | 48.0 | 179.0 | 1263.0 | 2284.0 | 3082.0 | 3894.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 486.0 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 48.0 | 169.0 | 1086.0 | 1926.0 | 2578.0 | 3239.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 420.0 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 49.0 | 156.0 | 899.0 | 1555.0 | 2060.0 | 2568.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 366.0 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 43.0 | 136.0 | 785.0 | 1359.0 | 1800.0 | 2245.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 337.0 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 42.0 | 129.0 | 710.0 | 1216.0 | 1604.0 | 1994.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 308.0 | 9.0 | 20.0 | 42.0 | 123.0 | 632.0 | 1065.0 | 1394.0 | 1725.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 311.0 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 38.0 | 118.0 | 658.0 | 1130.0 | 1491.0 | 1855.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 339.0 | 10.0 | 22.0 | 48.0 | 136.0 | 693.0 | 1165.0 | 1523.0 | 1883.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 347.0 | 14.0 | 27.0 | 55.0 | 147.0 | 684.0 | 1126.0 | 1458.0 | 1790.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 335.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 50.0 | 139.0 | 672.0 | 1119.0 | 1456.0 | 1794.0 |
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