Prediction 4641
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Bahia |
Description:
Forecast 2025-2026 for UF=BA (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 168.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 36.0 | 87.0 | 284.0 | 430.0 | 543.0 | 661.0 |
| 2025-10-12 | 175.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 37.0 | 91.0 | 297.0 | 452.0 | 572.0 | 698.0 |
| 2025-10-19 | 173.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 34.0 | 88.0 | 297.0 | 455.0 | 578.0 | 708.0 |
| 2025-10-26 | 171.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 32.0 | 85.0 | 296.0 | 457.0 | 583.0 | 715.0 |
| 2025-11-02 | 184.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 36.0 | 93.0 | 317.0 | 490.0 | 626.0 | 769.0 |
| 2025-11-09 | 188.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 37.0 | 95.0 | 325.0 | 505.0 | 647.0 | 796.0 |
| 2025-11-16 | 210.0 | 1.0 | 18.0 | 46.0 | 109.0 | 362.0 | 559.0 | 716.0 | 883.0 |
| 2025-11-23 | 227.0 | 2.0 | 23.0 | 53.0 | 119.0 | 389.0 | 602.0 | 771.0 | 951.0 |
| 2025-11-30 | 240.0 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 57.0 | 127.0 | 411.0 | 636.0 | 816.0 | 1007.0 |
| 2025-12-07 | 236.0 | 2.0 | 23.0 | 54.0 | 123.0 | 406.0 | 632.0 | 814.0 | 1007.0 |
| 2025-12-14 | 208.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 40.0 | 104.0 | 367.0 | 578.0 | 748.0 | 929.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | 204.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 37.0 | 100.0 | 363.0 | 574.0 | 745.0 | 927.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | 379.0 | 41.0 | 71.0 | 115.0 | 214.0 | 631.0 | 970.0 | 1243.0 | 1535.0 |
| 2026-01-11 | 452.0 | 60.0 | 96.0 | 146.0 | 261.0 | 745.0 | 1140.0 | 1460.0 | 1803.0 |
| 2026-01-18 | 535.0 | 82.0 | 123.0 | 181.0 | 313.0 | 875.0 | 1334.0 | 1707.0 | 2108.0 |
| 2026-01-25 | 637.0 | 110.0 | 157.0 | 224.0 | 378.0 | 1036.0 | 1576.0 | 2015.0 | 2489.0 |
| 2026-02-01 | 757.0 | 142.0 | 196.0 | 275.0 | 455.0 | 1224.0 | 1859.0 | 2377.0 | 2935.0 |
| 2026-02-08 | 868.0 | 171.0 | 233.0 | 321.0 | 524.0 | 1400.0 | 2125.0 | 2716.0 | 3356.0 |
| 2026-02-15 | 1004.0 | 207.0 | 277.0 | 378.0 | 611.0 | 1616.0 | 2451.0 | 3135.0 | 3874.0 |
| 2026-02-22 | 1134.0 | 240.0 | 319.0 | 432.0 | 692.0 | 1823.0 | 2765.0 | 3538.0 | 4375.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 1214.0 | 260.0 | 343.0 | 464.0 | 742.0 | 1953.0 | 2966.0 | 3797.0 | 4699.0 |
| 2026-03-08 | 1325.0 | 288.0 | 378.0 | 508.0 | 810.0 | 2130.0 | 3238.0 | 4148.0 | 5137.0 |
| 2026-03-15 | 1443.0 | 317.0 | 415.0 | 556.0 | 884.0 | 2320.0 | 3528.0 | 4524.0 | 5606.0 |
| 2026-03-22 | 1462.0 | 320.0 | 419.0 | 562.0 | 894.0 | 2355.0 | 3588.0 | 4605.0 | 5712.0 |
| 2026-03-29 | 1443.0 | 312.0 | 410.0 | 551.0 | 880.0 | 2330.0 | 3557.0 | 4571.0 | 5675.0 |
| 2026-04-05 | 1550.0 | 338.0 | 443.0 | 594.0 | 946.0 | 2502.0 | 3823.0 | 4915.0 | 6105.0 |
| 2026-04-12 | 1555.0 | 338.0 | 442.0 | 594.0 | 947.0 | 2515.0 | 3849.0 | 4953.0 | 6157.0 |
| 2026-04-19 | 1482.0 | 316.0 | 416.0 | 561.0 | 900.0 | 2405.0 | 3688.0 | 4751.0 | 5912.0 |
| 2026-04-26 | 1480.0 | 314.0 | 414.0 | 558.0 | 897.0 | 2406.0 | 3694.0 | 4763.0 | 5932.0 |
| 2026-05-03 | 1462.0 | 307.0 | 406.0 | 549.0 | 884.0 | 2380.0 | 3661.0 | 4725.0 | 5888.0 |
| 2026-05-10 | 1443.0 | 301.0 | 398.0 | 539.0 | 870.0 | 2354.0 | 3625.0 | 4682.0 | 5840.0 |
| 2026-05-17 | 1267.0 | 254.0 | 340.0 | 465.0 | 759.0 | 2077.0 | 3209.0 | 4152.0 | 5184.0 |
| 2026-05-24 | 1112.0 | 212.0 | 289.0 | 400.0 | 660.0 | 1832.0 | 2841.0 | 3681.0 | 4601.0 |
| 2026-05-31 | 1005.0 | 184.0 | 253.0 | 354.0 | 592.0 | 1664.0 | 2588.0 | 3358.0 | 4202.0 |
| 2026-06-07 | 878.0 | 150.0 | 212.0 | 301.0 | 512.0 | 1462.0 | 2283.0 | 2967.0 | 3718.0 |
| 2026-06-14 | 722.0 | 110.0 | 161.0 | 237.0 | 414.0 | 1215.0 | 1908.0 | 2486.0 | 3121.0 |
| 2026-06-21 | 548.0 | 65.0 | 106.0 | 165.0 | 305.0 | 938.0 | 1487.0 | 1945.0 | 2448.0 |
| 2026-06-28 | 515.0 | 56.0 | 94.0 | 151.0 | 284.0 | 887.0 | 1411.0 | 1849.0 | 2330.0 |
| 2026-07-05 | 506.0 | 53.0 | 91.0 | 146.0 | 277.0 | 874.0 | 1392.0 | 1827.0 | 2305.0 |
| 2026-07-12 | 496.0 | 50.0 | 87.0 | 141.0 | 270.0 | 859.0 | 1371.0 | 1801.0 | 2274.0 |
| 2026-07-19 | 434.0 | 34.0 | 67.0 | 116.0 | 232.0 | 761.0 | 1223.0 | 1610.0 | 2037.0 |
| 2026-07-26 | 381.0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 94.0 | 198.0 | 676.0 | 1093.0 | 1444.0 | 1831.0 |
| 2026-08-02 | 361.0 | 14.0 | 43.0 | 85.0 | 185.0 | 644.0 | 1046.0 | 1383.0 | 1756.0 |
| 2026-08-09 | 324.0 | 5.0 | 31.0 | 70.0 | 162.0 | 586.0 | 957.0 | 1269.0 | 1614.0 |
| 2026-08-16 | 282.0 | 1.0 | 18.0 | 53.0 | 136.0 | 519.0 | 855.0 | 1139.0 | 1451.0 |
| 2026-08-23 | 263.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 45.0 | 124.0 | 489.0 | 810.0 | 1080.0 | 1379.0 |
| 2026-08-30 | 243.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 37.0 | 112.0 | 457.0 | 761.0 | 1018.0 | 1301.0 |
| 2026-09-06 | 226.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 30.0 | 100.0 | 429.0 | 718.0 | 963.0 | 1233.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | 217.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 26.0 | 95.0 | 416.0 | 698.0 | 937.0 | 1202.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | 204.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 20.0 | 87.0 | 395.0 | 667.0 | 896.0 | 1151.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | 202.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 19.0 | 85.0 | 392.0 | 663.0 | 892.0 | 1146.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | 197.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 | 82.0 | 384.0 | 651.0 | 877.0 | 1127.0 |
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