Prediction 517
Modelo | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
---|---|
Autor | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
Descrição:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for unseen data from the period of 2024-06-16 to 2025-10-05 in the state BA.
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date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-06-02 | 8135.65 | - | 8018.54 | - | - | - | - | 8254.02 | - |
2024-06-09 | 6719.12 | - | 6613.92 | - | - | - | - | 6825.55 | - |
2024-06-16 | 5273.63 | - | 5181.56 | - | - | - | - | 5366.90 | - |
2024-06-23 | 4882.89 | - | 4794.61 | - | - | - | - | 4972.36 | - |
2024-06-30 | 5053.01 | - | 4963.07 | - | - | - | - | 5144.15 | - |
2024-07-07 | 4816.02 | - | 4728.40 | - | - | - | - | 4904.83 | - |
2024-07-14 | 4189.67 | - | 4108.43 | - | - | - | - | 4272.09 | - |
2024-07-21 | 3510.59 | - | 3436.73 | - | - | - | - | 3585.61 | - |
2024-07-28 | 3253.76 | - | 3182.86 | - | - | - | - | 3325.83 | - |
2024-08-04 | 2889.77 | - | 2823.22 | - | - | - | - | 2957.47 | - |
2024-08-11 | 2509.47 | - | 2447.74 | - | - | - | - | 2572.33 | - |
2024-08-18 | 2229.89 | - | 2171.93 | - | - | - | - | 2288.99 | - |
2024-08-25 | 2103.48 | - | 2047.29 | - | - | - | - | 2160.81 | - |
2024-09-01 | 1999.23 | - | 1944.54 | - | - | - | - | 2055.06 | - |
2024-09-08 | 1898.03 | - | 1844.82 | - | - | - | - | 1952.37 | - |
2024-09-15 | 1809.04 | - | 1757.17 | - | - | - | - | 1862.03 | - |
2024-09-22 | 1711.35 | - | 1660.99 | - | - | - | - | 1762.83 | - |
2024-09-29 | 1672.39 | - | 1622.64 | - | - | - | - | 1723.26 | - |
2024-10-06 | 1565.59 | - | 1517.55 | - | - | - | - | 1614.75 | - |
2024-10-13 | 1621.71 | - | 1572.76 | - | - | - | - | 1671.78 | - |
2024-10-20 | 1495.76 | - | 1448.86 | - | - | - | - | 1543.76 | - |
2024-10-27 | 1558.38 | - | 1510.46 | - | - | - | - | 1607.42 | - |
2024-11-03 | 1690.98 | - | 1640.94 | - | - | - | - | 1742.15 | - |
2024-11-10 | 1737.01 | - | 1686.24 | - | - | - | - | 1788.89 | - |
2024-11-17 | 1922.63 | - | 1869.06 | - | - | - | - | 1977.33 | - |
2024-11-24 | 2122.49 | - | 2066.03 | - | - | - | - | 2180.09 | - |
2024-12-01 | 2253.22 | - | 2194.92 | - | - | - | - | 2312.65 | - |
2024-12-08 | 2099.38 | - | 2043.24 | - | - | - | - | 2156.65 | - |
2024-12-15 | 1819.43 | - | 1767.38 | - | - | - | - | 1872.59 | - |
2024-12-22 | 1854.26 | - | 1804.73 | - | - | - | - | 1904.77 | - |
2024-12-29 | 642.94 | - | 93.51 | - | - | - | - | 2283.21 | - |
2025-01-05 | 779.31 | - | 113.34 | - | - | - | - | 2767.44 | - |
2025-01-12 | 872.23 | - | 126.86 | - | - | - | - | 3097.42 | - |
2025-01-19 | 1060.24 | - | 154.21 | - | - | - | - | 3765.01 | - |
2025-01-26 | 1337.22 | - | 194.50 | - | - | - | - | 4748.55 | - |
2025-02-02 | 1621.29 | - | 235.82 | - | - | - | - | 5757.29 | - |
2025-02-09 | 2046.14 | - | 297.62 | - | - | - | - | 7265.88 | - |
2025-02-16 | 2571.88 | - | 374.10 | - | - | - | - | 9132.79 | - |
2025-02-23 | 3006.50 | - | 437.32 | - | - | - | - | 10676.10 | - |
2025-03-02 | 3293.99 | - | 479.13 | - | - | - | - | 11696.94 | - |
2025-03-09 | 3518.98 | - | 511.86 | - | - | - | - | 12495.88 | - |
2025-03-16 | 3599.68 | - | 523.60 | - | - | - | - | 12782.45 | - |
2025-03-23 | 3303.67 | - | 480.54 | - | - | - | - | 11731.33 | - |
2025-03-30 | 3633.91 | - | 528.58 | - | - | - | - | 12903.99 | - |
2025-04-06 | 3471.77 | - | 504.99 | - | - | - | - | 12328.24 | - |
2025-04-13 | 3238.98 | - | 471.13 | - | - | - | - | 11501.61 | - |
2025-04-20 | 2952.93 | - | 429.52 | - | - | - | - | 10485.88 | - |
2025-04-27 | 2868.23 | - | 417.20 | - | - | - | - | 10185.08 | - |
2025-05-04 | 2717.66 | - | 395.30 | - | - | - | - | 9650.45 | - |
2025-05-11 | 2368.69 | - | 344.54 | - | - | - | - | 8411.27 | - |
2025-05-18 | 1976.70 | - | 287.52 | - | - | - | - | 7019.31 | - |
2025-05-25 | 1650.57 | - | 240.08 | - | - | - | - | 5861.24 | - |
2025-06-01 | 1974.35 | - | 287.17 | - | - | - | - | 7011.04 | - |
2025-06-08 | 1630.59 | - | 237.17 | - | - | - | - | 5790.36 | - |
2025-06-15 | 1279.80 | - | 186.14 | - | - | - | - | 4544.72 | - |
2025-06-22 | 1184.97 | - | 172.35 | - | - | - | - | 4208.01 | - |
2025-06-29 | 1226.26 | - | 178.35 | - | - | - | - | 4354.60 | - |
2025-07-06 | 1168.74 | - | 169.99 | - | - | - | - | 4150.38 | - |
2025-07-13 | 1016.74 | - | 147.87 | - | - | - | - | 3610.63 | - |
2025-07-20 | 851.94 | - | 123.90 | - | - | - | - | 3025.44 | - |
2025-07-27 | 789.62 | - | 114.84 | - | - | - | - | 2804.12 | - |
2025-08-03 | 701.28 | - | 101.99 | - | - | - | - | 2490.45 | - |
2025-08-10 | 608.99 | - | 88.56 | - | - | - | - | 2162.73 | - |
2025-08-17 | 541.15 | - | 78.69 | - | - | - | - | 1921.81 | - |
2025-08-24 | 510.47 | - | 74.23 | - | - | - | - | 1812.88 | - |
2025-08-31 | 485.17 | - | 70.55 | - | - | - | - | 1723.04 | - |
2025-09-07 | 460.61 | - | 66.98 | - | - | - | - | 1635.83 | - |
2025-09-14 | 439.01 | - | 63.84 | - | - | - | - | 1559.14 | - |
2025-09-21 | 415.31 | - | 60.39 | - | - | - | - | 1474.96 | - |
2025-09-28 | 405.85 | - | 59.01 | - | - | - | - | 1441.39 | - |
2025-10-05 | 379.94 | - | 55.24 | - | - | - | - | 1349.35 | - |