Prediction 686
| Model | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
|---|---|
| Author | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
| ADM 1 | Amapá |
Description:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for validation test 2 in the state AP.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 8.28 | - | 7.19 | - | - | - | - | 9.49 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 7.43 | - | 6.43 | - | - | - | - | 8.54 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 6.97 | - | 6.02 | - | - | - | - | 8.03 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 7.04 | - | 6.08 | - | - | - | - | 8.10 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 6.31 | - | 5.43 | - | - | - | - | 7.29 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 6.19 | - | 5.32 | - | - | - | - | 7.15 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 7.61 | - | 6.59 | - | - | - | - | 8.74 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 9.40 | - | 8.18 | - | - | - | - | 10.74 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 9.95 | - | 8.68 | - | - | - | - | 11.36 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 10.29 | - | 8.98 | - | - | - | - | 11.74 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 9.64 | - | 8.40 | - | - | - | - | 11.00 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 8.71 | - | 7.57 | - | - | - | - | 9.98 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 8.69 | - | 7.55 | - | - | - | - | 9.95 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 8.59 | - | 7.46 | - | - | - | - | 9.84 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 9.36 | - | 8.15 | - | - | - | - | 10.70 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 9.39 | - | 8.18 | - | - | - | - | 10.73 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 10.08 | - | 8.79 | - | - | - | - | 11.50 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 9.29 | - | 8.09 | - | - | - | - | 10.62 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 9.20 | - | 8.01 | - | - | - | - | 10.52 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 8.50 | - | 7.39 | - | - | - | - | 9.74 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 9.16 | - | 7.98 | - | - | - | - | 10.48 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 8.38 | - | 7.28 | - | - | - | - | 9.61 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 7.64 | - | 6.61 | - | - | - | - | 8.77 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 6.00 | - | 5.15 | - | - | - | - | 6.94 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 5.13 | - | 4.38 | - | - | - | - | 5.96 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 4.86 | - | 4.15 | - | - | - | - | 5.66 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 4.77 | - | 4.07 | - | - | - | - | 5.56 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 3.69 | - | 3.10 | - | - | - | - | 4.35 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 5.13 | - | 4.39 | - | - | - | - | 5.95 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 53.95 | - | 1.61 | - | - | - | - | 292.97 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 67.46 | - | 2.02 | - | - | - | - | 366.32 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 66.18 | - | 1.98 | - | - | - | - | 359.34 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 76.07 | - | 2.28 | - | - | - | - | 413.06 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 93.05 | - | 2.78 | - | - | - | - | 505.21 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 89.67 | - | 2.68 | - | - | - | - | 486.88 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 94.91 | - | 2.84 | - | - | - | - | 515.29 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 87.21 | - | 2.61 | - | - | - | - | 473.51 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 107.29 | - | 3.21 | - | - | - | - | 582.49 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 111.38 | - | 3.33 | - | - | - | - | 604.72 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 103.35 | - | 3.09 | - | - | - | - | 561.10 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 82.96 | - | 2.48 | - | - | - | - | 450.43 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 91.29 | - | 2.73 | - | - | - | - | 495.66 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 102.34 | - | 3.06 | - | - | - | - | 555.65 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 82.41 | - | 2.47 | - | - | - | - | 447.44 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 76.54 | - | 2.29 | - | - | - | - | 415.60 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 67.59 | - | 2.02 | - | - | - | - | 366.99 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 69.16 | - | 2.07 | - | - | - | - | 375.55 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 82.88 | - | 2.48 | - | - | - | - | 450.02 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 67.24 | - | 2.01 | - | - | - | - | 365.11 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 56.72 | - | 1.70 | - | - | - | - | 308.01 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 51.22 | - | 1.53 | - | - | - | - | 278.13 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 45.71 | - | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | 248.24 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 42.42 | - | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | 230.38 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 38.05 | - | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | 206.67 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 35.72 | - | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | 194.01 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 36.05 | - | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | 195.81 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 32.32 | - | 0.97 | - | - | - | - | 175.52 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 31.70 | - | 0.95 | - | - | - | - | 172.18 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 38.97 | - | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | 211.66 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 48.13 | - | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | 261.36 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 50.97 | - | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | 276.79 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 52.72 | - | 1.58 | - | - | - | - | 286.30 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 49.36 | - | 1.48 | - | - | - | - | 268.04 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 44.63 | - | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | 242.39 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 44.50 | - | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | 241.68 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 44.00 | - | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | 238.96 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 47.94 | - | 1.43 | - | - | - | - | 260.36 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 48.11 | - | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | 261.25 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 51.61 | - | 1.54 | - | - | - | - | 280.27 | - |
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Interval Bounds
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