Prediction 688
| Model | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
|---|---|
| Author | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
| ADM 1 | Rondônia |
Description:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for validation test 2 in the state RO.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 111.23 | - | 103.99 | - | - | - | - | 118.83 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 109.22 | - | 102.06 | - | - | - | - | 116.75 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 94.27 | - | 87.69 | - | - | - | - | 101.20 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 91.90 | - | 85.42 | - | - | - | - | 98.74 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 84.62 | - | 78.45 | - | - | - | - | 91.15 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 79.49 | - | 73.54 | - | - | - | - | 85.79 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 77.55 | - | 71.69 | - | - | - | - | 83.77 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 74.22 | - | 68.50 | - | - | - | - | 80.29 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 65.12 | - | 59.82 | - | - | - | - | 70.76 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 57.12 | - | 52.22 | - | - | - | - | 62.36 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 50.81 | - | 46.23 | - | - | - | - | 55.72 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 45.80 | - | 41.49 | - | - | - | - | 50.43 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 49.07 | - | 44.59 | - | - | - | - | 53.89 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 47.90 | - | 43.47 | - | - | - | - | 52.65 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 53.57 | - | 48.85 | - | - | - | - | 58.63 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 55.23 | - | 50.42 | - | - | - | - | 60.37 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 61.36 | - | 56.25 | - | - | - | - | 66.82 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 62.75 | - | 57.56 | - | - | - | - | 68.27 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 76.04 | - | 70.24 | - | - | - | - | 82.19 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 83.48 | - | 77.35 | - | - | - | - | 89.96 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 114.45 | - | 107.09 | - | - | - | - | 122.19 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 129.46 | - | 121.54 | - | - | - | - | 137.74 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 172.92 | - | 163.54 | - | - | - | - | 182.70 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 199.81 | - | 189.59 | - | - | - | - | 210.44 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 240.23 | - | 228.80 | - | - | - | - | 252.08 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 248.24 | - | 236.58 | - | - | - | - | 260.32 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 241.93 | - | 230.45 | - | - | - | - | 253.83 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 193.70 | - | 183.62 | - | - | - | - | 204.17 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 288.53 | - | 276.09 | - | - | - | - | 301.38 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 477.43 | - | 66.29 | - | - | - | - | 1727.42 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 525.42 | - | 72.96 | - | - | - | - | 1901.04 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 548.33 | - | 76.14 | - | - | - | - | 1983.94 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 508.51 | - | 70.61 | - | - | - | - | 1839.87 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 506.65 | - | 70.35 | - | - | - | - | 1833.14 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 487.78 | - | 67.73 | - | - | - | - | 1764.88 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 489.74 | - | 68.00 | - | - | - | - | 1771.97 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 406.07 | - | 56.38 | - | - | - | - | 1469.26 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 405.50 | - | 56.30 | - | - | - | - | 1467.19 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 376.24 | - | 52.24 | - | - | - | - | 1361.33 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 346.53 | - | 48.11 | - | - | - | - | 1253.88 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 287.30 | - | 39.88 | - | - | - | - | 1039.56 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 269.11 | - | 37.36 | - | - | - | - | 973.78 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 256.89 | - | 35.66 | - | - | - | - | 929.56 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 233.55 | - | 32.42 | - | - | - | - | 845.12 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 197.85 | - | 27.46 | - | - | - | - | 715.96 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 159.87 | - | 22.19 | - | - | - | - | 578.57 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 164.54 | - | 22.84 | - | - | - | - | 595.46 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 153.66 | - | 21.32 | - | - | - | - | 556.10 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 123.21 | - | 17.09 | - | - | - | - | 445.91 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 102.48 | - | 14.22 | - | - | - | - | 370.92 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 95.30 | - | 13.22 | - | - | - | - | 344.96 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 84.01 | - | 11.65 | - | - | - | - | 304.10 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 78.15 | - | 10.84 | - | - | - | - | 282.91 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 76.74 | - | 10.64 | - | - | - | - | 277.81 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 66.23 | - | 9.18 | - | - | - | - | 239.79 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 64.57 | - | 8.95 | - | - | - | - | 233.78 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 59.45 | - | 8.24 | - | - | - | - | 215.28 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 55.85 | - | 7.74 | - | - | - | - | 202.23 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 54.49 | - | 7.55 | - | - | - | - | 197.31 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 52.15 | - | 7.22 | - | - | - | - | 188.84 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 45.75 | - | 6.34 | - | - | - | - | 165.70 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 40.13 | - | 5.56 | - | - | - | - | 145.38 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 35.70 | - | 4.94 | - | - | - | - | 129.33 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 32.18 | - | 4.45 | - | - | - | - | 116.59 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 34.48 | - | 4.77 | - | - | - | - | 124.91 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 33.65 | - | 4.66 | - | - | - | - | 121.92 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 37.64 | - | 5.21 | - | - | - | - | 136.34 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 38.81 | - | 5.37 | - | - | - | - | 140.57 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 43.11 | - | 5.97 | - | - | - | - | 156.15 | - |
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