Prediction 689
| Model | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
|---|---|
| Author | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
| ADM 1 | Roraima |
Description:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for validation test 2 in the state RR.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 2.97 | - | 2.17 | - | - | - | - | 3.97 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 2.74 | - | 2.00 | - | - | - | - | 3.67 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 2.93 | - | 2.14 | - | - | - | - | 3.91 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 2.43 | - | 1.77 | - | - | - | - | 3.25 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 2.57 | - | 1.88 | - | - | - | - | 3.44 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 2.58 | - | 1.88 | - | - | - | - | 3.45 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 2.21 | - | 1.61 | - | - | - | - | 2.96 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 2.52 | - | 1.84 | - | - | - | - | 3.38 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 2.57 | - | 1.87 | - | - | - | - | 3.44 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 2.45 | - | 1.79 | - | - | - | - | 3.28 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 2.25 | - | 1.64 | - | - | - | - | 3.01 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 1.93 | - | 1.41 | - | - | - | - | 2.59 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 1.83 | - | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | 2.45 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 1.69 | - | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | 2.27 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 1.62 | - | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | 2.17 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 1.31 | - | 0.95 | - | - | - | - | 1.76 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 1.27 | - | 0.92 | - | - | - | - | 1.70 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 1.30 | - | 0.94 | - | - | - | - | 1.74 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 1.30 | - | 0.95 | - | - | - | - | 1.75 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 1.14 | - | 0.83 | - | - | - | - | 1.54 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 1.22 | - | 0.89 | - | - | - | - | 1.64 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 1.27 | - | 0.92 | - | - | - | - | 1.70 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 1.26 | - | 0.91 | - | - | - | - | 1.69 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 1.27 | - | 0.93 | - | - | - | - | 1.71 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 1.23 | - | 0.89 | - | - | - | - | 1.65 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 1.11 | - | 0.80 | - | - | - | - | 1.49 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 1.21 | - | 0.88 | - | - | - | - | 1.62 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 1.08 | - | 0.78 | - | - | - | - | 1.45 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 0.95 | - | 0.69 | - | - | - | - | 1.29 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 63.94 | - | 0.66 | - | - | - | - | 380.25 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 65.18 | - | 0.67 | - | - | - | - | 387.62 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 70.84 | - | 0.73 | - | - | - | - | 421.26 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 69.10 | - | 0.71 | - | - | - | - | 410.94 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 74.59 | - | 0.77 | - | - | - | - | 443.55 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 85.58 | - | 0.88 | - | - | - | - | 508.90 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 80.04 | - | 0.82 | - | - | - | - | 475.97 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 82.07 | - | 0.85 | - | - | - | - | 488.06 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 95.12 | - | 0.98 | - | - | - | - | 565.67 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 94.05 | - | 0.97 | - | - | - | - | 559.31 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 104.15 | - | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | 619.37 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 109.77 | - | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | 652.76 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 96.89 | - | 1.00 | - | - | - | - | 576.18 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 109.27 | - | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | 649.77 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 94.77 | - | 0.98 | - | - | - | - | 563.55 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 98.47 | - | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | 585.56 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 94.50 | - | 0.97 | - | - | - | - | 561.99 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 107.20 | - | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | 637.49 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 127.95 | - | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | 760.85 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 149.05 | - | 1.54 | - | - | - | - | 886.33 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 158.52 | - | 1.63 | - | - | - | - | 942.66 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 170.09 | - | 1.75 | - | - | - | - | 1011.41 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 177.34 | - | 1.83 | - | - | - | - | 1054.56 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 163.20 | - | 1.68 | - | - | - | - | 970.46 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 150.73 | - | 1.55 | - | - | - | - | 896.34 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 160.89 | - | 1.66 | - | - | - | - | 956.74 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 133.71 | - | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | 795.11 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 141.38 | - | 1.46 | - | - | - | - | 840.70 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 141.64 | - | 1.46 | - | - | - | - | 842.27 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 121.76 | - | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | 724.08 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 138.77 | - | 1.43 | - | - | - | - | 825.22 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 141.26 | - | 1.46 | - | - | - | - | 840.02 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 134.80 | - | 1.39 | - | - | - | - | 801.59 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 123.50 | - | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | 734.41 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 106.23 | - | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | 631.74 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 100.71 | - | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | 598.92 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 93.04 | - | 0.96 | - | - | - | - | 553.31 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 88.95 | - | 0.92 | - | - | - | - | 528.93 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 71.94 | - | 0.74 | - | - | - | - | 427.80 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 69.60 | - | 0.72 | - | - | - | - | 413.90 | - |
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Interval Bounds
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