Prediction 690
| Model | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
|---|---|
| Author | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
| ADM 1 | Tocantins |
Description:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for validation test 2 in the state TO.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 64.90 | - | 61.82 | - | - | - | - | 68.09 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 52.36 | - | 49.74 | - | - | - | - | 55.07 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 43.70 | - | 41.41 | - | - | - | - | 46.08 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 35.45 | - | 33.49 | - | - | - | - | 37.50 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 29.63 | - | 27.90 | - | - | - | - | 31.44 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 26.77 | - | 25.16 | - | - | - | - | 28.46 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 24.05 | - | 22.55 | - | - | - | - | 25.62 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 24.68 | - | 23.16 | - | - | - | - | 26.28 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 22.08 | - | 20.67 | - | - | - | - | 23.57 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 21.75 | - | 20.35 | - | - | - | - | 23.22 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 19.37 | - | 18.07 | - | - | - | - | 20.73 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 16.82 | - | 15.64 | - | - | - | - | 18.06 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 15.79 | - | 14.65 | - | - | - | - | 16.98 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 16.41 | - | 15.25 | - | - | - | - | 17.64 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 16.47 | - | 15.31 | - | - | - | - | 17.70 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 16.81 | - | 15.63 | - | - | - | - | 18.06 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 16.26 | - | 15.11 | - | - | - | - | 17.48 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 17.63 | - | 16.41 | - | - | - | - | 18.91 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 21.24 | - | 19.86 | - | - | - | - | 22.68 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 24.74 | - | 23.21 | - | - | - | - | 26.34 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 30.46 | - | 28.69 | - | - | - | - | 32.30 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 35.82 | - | 33.84 | - | - | - | - | 37.88 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 44.03 | - | 41.73 | - | - | - | - | 46.42 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 53.43 | - | 50.77 | - | - | - | - | 56.18 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 70.33 | - | 67.05 | - | - | - | - | 73.73 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 81.99 | - | 78.28 | - | - | - | - | 85.83 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 88.04 | - | 84.11 | - | - | - | - | 92.10 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 65.56 | - | 62.45 | - | - | - | - | 68.78 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 59.38 | - | 56.53 | - | - | - | - | 62.33 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 549.38 | - | 76.90 | - | - | - | - | 1981.44 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 615.40 | - | 86.14 | - | - | - | - | 2219.56 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 674.64 | - | 94.44 | - | - | - | - | 2433.21 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 721.43 | - | 100.99 | - | - | - | - | 2601.96 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 802.54 | - | 112.34 | - | - | - | - | 2894.46 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 822.52 | - | 115.14 | - | - | - | - | 2966.52 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 831.01 | - | 116.33 | - | - | - | - | 2997.12 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 793.88 | - | 111.13 | - | - | - | - | 2863.22 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 784.82 | - | 109.86 | - | - | - | - | 2830.57 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 735.13 | - | 102.91 | - | - | - | - | 2651.36 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 764.78 | - | 107.06 | - | - | - | - | 2758.30 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 764.87 | - | 107.07 | - | - | - | - | 2758.62 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 717.19 | - | 100.39 | - | - | - | - | 2586.67 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 741.74 | - | 103.83 | - | - | - | - | 2675.18 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 728.62 | - | 101.99 | - | - | - | - | 2627.89 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 659.70 | - | 92.34 | - | - | - | - | 2379.31 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 668.59 | - | 93.59 | - | - | - | - | 2411.37 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 650.86 | - | 91.11 | - | - | - | - | 2347.46 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 610.00 | - | 85.39 | - | - | - | - | 2200.10 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 558.42 | - | 78.16 | - | - | - | - | 2014.07 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 483.21 | - | 67.63 | - | - | - | - | 1742.82 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 412.76 | - | 57.77 | - | - | - | - | 1488.76 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 358.26 | - | 50.14 | - | - | - | - | 1292.20 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 320.39 | - | 44.84 | - | - | - | - | 1155.64 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 258.47 | - | 36.17 | - | - | - | - | 932.35 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 215.72 | - | 30.18 | - | - | - | - | 778.18 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 175.00 | - | 24.48 | - | - | - | - | 631.32 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 146.28 | - | 20.46 | - | - | - | - | 527.75 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 132.17 | - | 18.48 | - | - | - | - | 476.85 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 118.71 | - | 16.60 | - | - | - | - | 428.30 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 121.85 | - | 17.04 | - | - | - | - | 439.65 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 109.02 | - | 15.24 | - | - | - | - | 393.38 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 107.36 | - | 15.01 | - | - | - | - | 387.38 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 95.60 | - | 13.37 | - | - | - | - | 344.98 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 83.02 | - | 11.60 | - | - | - | - | 299.61 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 77.93 | - | 10.89 | - | - | - | - | 281.23 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 81.02 | - | 11.32 | - | - | - | - | 292.40 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 81.31 | - | 11.36 | - | - | - | - | 293.44 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 82.99 | - | 11.60 | - | - | - | - | 299.50 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 80.29 | - | 11.22 | - | - | - | - | 289.74 | - |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
