Prediction 691
| Model | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
|---|---|
| Author | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for validation test 2 in the state CE.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 453.57 | - | 442.99 | - | - | - | - | 464.32 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 387.93 | - | 378.66 | - | - | - | - | 397.37 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 339.17 | - | 330.87 | - | - | - | - | 347.61 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 314.50 | - | 306.70 | - | - | - | - | 322.45 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 277.68 | - | 270.62 | - | - | - | - | 284.88 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 248.13 | - | 241.67 | - | - | - | - | 254.71 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 222.03 | - | 216.11 | - | - | - | - | 228.08 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 212.09 | - | 206.37 | - | - | - | - | 217.93 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 190.06 | - | 184.80 | - | - | - | - | 195.44 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 172.08 | - | 167.19 | - | - | - | - | 177.07 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 146.51 | - | 142.16 | - | - | - | - | 150.95 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 121.00 | - | 117.21 | - | - | - | - | 124.89 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 112.28 | - | 108.68 | - | - | - | - | 115.97 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 101.96 | - | 98.59 | - | - | - | - | 105.41 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 99.51 | - | 96.19 | - | - | - | - | 102.91 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 91.33 | - | 88.20 | - | - | - | - | 94.54 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 83.21 | - | 80.27 | - | - | - | - | 86.23 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 79.31 | - | 76.46 | - | - | - | - | 82.24 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 68.22 | - | 65.64 | - | - | - | - | 70.87 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 61.94 | - | 59.51 | - | - | - | - | 64.44 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 65.57 | - | 63.05 | - | - | - | - | 68.16 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 74.53 | - | 71.80 | - | - | - | - | 77.34 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 75.98 | - | 73.21 | - | - | - | - | 78.83 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 79.17 | - | 76.32 | - | - | - | - | 82.09 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 85.90 | - | 82.90 | - | - | - | - | 88.98 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 87.61 | - | 84.57 | - | - | - | - | 90.73 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 76.31 | - | 73.53 | - | - | - | - | 79.16 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 67.05 | - | 64.49 | - | - | - | - | 69.67 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 64.68 | - | 62.25 | - | - | - | - | 67.17 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 423.79 | - | 91.22 | - | - | - | - | 1263.43 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 478.60 | - | 103.02 | - | - | - | - | 1426.82 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 581.66 | - | 125.21 | - | - | - | - | 1734.02 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 681.73 | - | 146.75 | - | - | - | - | 2032.32 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 847.82 | - | 182.51 | - | - | - | - | 2527.39 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 920.90 | - | 198.25 | - | - | - | - | 2745.24 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 1026.82 | - | 221.05 | - | - | - | - | 3060.94 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 1100.43 | - | 236.90 | - | - | - | - | 3280.39 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 1287.12 | - | 277.10 | - | - | - | - | 3836.85 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 1475.56 | - | 317.67 | - | - | - | - | 4398.57 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 1594.94 | - | 343.38 | - | - | - | - | 4754.43 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 1669.74 | - | 359.48 | - | - | - | - | 4977.39 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 1881.38 | - | 405.05 | - | - | - | - | 5608.24 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 2300.75 | - | 495.34 | - | - | - | - | 6858.31 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 2504.97 | - | 539.31 | - | - | - | - | 7467.03 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 2556.58 | - | 550.43 | - | - | - | - | 7620.88 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 2597.38 | - | 559.21 | - | - | - | - | 7742.50 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 2727.63 | - | 587.25 | - | - | - | - | 8130.74 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 2921.69 | - | 629.04 | - | - | - | - | 8709.22 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 2875.22 | - | 619.03 | - | - | - | - | 8570.69 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 2403.96 | - | 517.56 | - | - | - | - | 7165.94 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 2084.50 | - | 448.78 | - | - | - | - | 6213.70 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 1927.03 | - | 414.88 | - | - | - | - | 5744.32 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 1731.25 | - | 372.72 | - | - | - | - | 5160.72 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 1480.71 | - | 318.78 | - | - | - | - | 4413.93 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 1294.59 | - | 278.71 | - | - | - | - | 3859.12 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 1200.45 | - | 258.44 | - | - | - | - | 3578.51 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 1059.90 | - | 228.18 | - | - | - | - | 3159.58 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 947.10 | - | 203.89 | - | - | - | - | 2823.32 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 847.50 | - | 182.44 | - | - | - | - | 2526.43 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 809.54 | - | 174.27 | - | - | - | - | 2413.29 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 725.46 | - | 156.17 | - | - | - | - | 2162.66 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 656.83 | - | 141.39 | - | - | - | - | 1958.09 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 559.23 | - | 120.38 | - | - | - | - | 1667.15 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 461.87 | - | 99.41 | - | - | - | - | 1376.94 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 428.58 | - | 92.25 | - | - | - | - | 1277.72 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 389.17 | - | 83.76 | - | - | - | - | 1160.24 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 379.82 | - | 81.75 | - | - | - | - | 1132.38 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 348.60 | - | 75.03 | - | - | - | - | 1039.32 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 317.61 | - | 68.35 | - | - | - | - | 946.93 | - |
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Interval Bounds
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