Prediction 697
| Model | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
|---|---|
| Author | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
| ADM 1 | Piauí |
Description:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for validation test 2 in the state PI.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 253.46 | - | 243.53 | - | - | - | - | 263.69 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 218.84 | - | 209.90 | - | - | - | - | 228.07 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 193.61 | - | 185.40 | - | - | - | - | 202.08 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 165.60 | - | 158.23 | - | - | - | - | 173.23 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 138.00 | - | 131.47 | - | - | - | - | 144.76 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 125.74 | - | 119.60 | - | - | - | - | 132.10 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 103.29 | - | 97.89 | - | - | - | - | 108.91 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 94.31 | - | 89.21 | - | - | - | - | 99.62 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 81.77 | - | 77.11 | - | - | - | - | 86.63 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 66.63 | - | 62.52 | - | - | - | - | 70.93 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 64.26 | - | 60.25 | - | - | - | - | 68.47 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 52.97 | - | 49.41 | - | - | - | - | 56.72 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 47.88 | - | 44.53 | - | - | - | - | 51.41 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 40.75 | - | 37.71 | - | - | - | - | 43.96 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 39.20 | - | 36.23 | - | - | - | - | 42.35 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 31.28 | - | 28.69 | - | - | - | - | 34.04 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 27.84 | - | 25.43 | - | - | - | - | 30.42 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 26.23 | - | 23.90 | - | - | - | - | 28.72 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 24.20 | - | 21.98 | - | - | - | - | 26.57 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 22.79 | - | 20.66 | - | - | - | - | 25.09 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 24.51 | - | 22.28 | - | - | - | - | 26.90 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 27.02 | - | 24.66 | - | - | - | - | 29.56 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 29.30 | - | 26.81 | - | - | - | - | 31.95 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 29.90 | - | 27.39 | - | - | - | - | 32.59 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 32.40 | - | 29.75 | - | - | - | - | 35.21 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 32.34 | - | 29.70 | - | - | - | - | 35.15 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 30.69 | - | 28.13 | - | - | - | - | 33.42 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 29.16 | - | 26.68 | - | - | - | - | 31.80 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 26.59 | - | 24.25 | - | - | - | - | 29.06 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 74.40 | - | 14.08 | - | - | - | - | 235.78 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 91.80 | - | 17.38 | - | - | - | - | 290.86 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 97.85 | - | 18.53 | - | - | - | - | 310.01 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 118.78 | - | 22.50 | - | - | - | - | 376.28 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 147.74 | - | 27.99 | - | - | - | - | 467.99 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 163.99 | - | 31.07 | - | - | - | - | 519.45 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 178.32 | - | 33.79 | - | - | - | - | 564.82 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 187.50 | - | 35.53 | - | - | - | - | 593.87 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 220.99 | - | 41.88 | - | - | - | - | 699.92 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 271.33 | - | 51.42 | - | - | - | - | 859.32 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 342.99 | - | 65.01 | - | - | - | - | 1086.21 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 410.15 | - | 77.74 | - | - | - | - | 1298.89 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 455.90 | - | 86.42 | - | - | - | - | 1443.74 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 506.50 | - | 96.01 | - | - | - | - | 1603.95 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 546.20 | - | 103.54 | - | - | - | - | 1729.65 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 589.33 | - | 111.71 | - | - | - | - | 1866.22 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 594.47 | - | 112.69 | - | - | - | - | 1882.49 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 566.67 | - | 107.42 | - | - | - | - | 1794.47 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 577.54 | - | 109.48 | - | - | - | - | 1828.89 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 537.41 | - | 101.87 | - | - | - | - | 1701.83 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 446.78 | - | 84.69 | - | - | - | - | 1414.86 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 413.51 | - | 78.38 | - | - | - | - | 1309.52 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 362.80 | - | 68.76 | - | - | - | - | 1148.95 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 333.90 | - | 63.28 | - | - | - | - | 1057.46 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 288.30 | - | 54.64 | - | - | - | - | 913.06 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 255.05 | - | 48.33 | - | - | - | - | 807.79 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 218.16 | - | 41.34 | - | - | - | - | 690.96 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 181.79 | - | 34.44 | - | - | - | - | 575.83 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 165.64 | - | 31.38 | - | - | - | - | 524.68 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 136.07 | - | 25.77 | - | - | - | - | 431.06 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 124.24 | - | 23.53 | - | - | - | - | 393.60 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 107.72 | - | 20.40 | - | - | - | - | 341.27 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 87.77 | - | 16.62 | - | - | - | - | 278.12 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 84.65 | - | 16.03 | - | - | - | - | 268.24 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 69.78 | - | 13.21 | - | - | - | - | 221.15 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 63.07 | - | 11.93 | - | - | - | - | 199.90 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 53.68 | - | 10.15 | - | - | - | - | 170.16 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 51.64 | - | 9.77 | - | - | - | - | 163.71 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 41.21 | - | 7.79 | - | - | - | - | 130.66 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 36.68 | - | 6.93 | - | - | - | - | 116.32 | - |
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Interval Bounds
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