Prediction 699
| Model | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
|---|---|
| Author | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
| ADM 1 | Sergipe |
Description:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for validation test 2 in the state SE.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 74.90 | - | 69.87 | - | - | - | - | 80.18 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 72.73 | - | 67.81 | - | - | - | - | 77.91 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 76.11 | - | 71.01 | - | - | - | - | 81.47 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 87.31 | - | 81.62 | - | - | - | - | 93.29 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 82.43 | - | 77.00 | - | - | - | - | 88.14 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 78.44 | - | 73.21 | - | - | - | - | 83.92 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 81.69 | - | 76.30 | - | - | - | - | 87.36 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 76.63 | - | 71.50 | - | - | - | - | 82.01 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 67.81 | - | 63.15 | - | - | - | - | 72.71 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 65.74 | - | 61.20 | - | - | - | - | 70.53 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 59.56 | - | 55.36 | - | - | - | - | 64.00 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 52.50 | - | 48.67 | - | - | - | - | 56.54 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 56.90 | - | 52.84 | - | - | - | - | 61.19 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 58.82 | - | 54.66 | - | - | - | - | 63.22 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 58.09 | - | 53.96 | - | - | - | - | 62.45 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 47.63 | - | 44.08 | - | - | - | - | 51.39 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 47.52 | - | 43.98 | - | - | - | - | 51.27 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 41.42 | - | 38.22 | - | - | - | - | 44.81 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 41.26 | - | 38.08 | - | - | - | - | 44.64 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 40.50 | - | 37.35 | - | - | - | - | 43.83 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 45.89 | - | 42.44 | - | - | - | - | 49.54 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 53.32 | - | 49.45 | - | - | - | - | 57.41 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 49.36 | - | 45.70 | - | - | - | - | 53.22 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 58.15 | - | 54.02 | - | - | - | - | 62.52 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 53.77 | - | 49.88 | - | - | - | - | 57.88 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 44.76 | - | 41.37 | - | - | - | - | 48.34 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 41.38 | - | 38.18 | - | - | - | - | 44.77 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 30.61 | - | 28.04 | - | - | - | - | 33.34 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 26.61 | - | 24.30 | - | - | - | - | 29.06 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 69.96 | - | 5.91 | - | - | - | - | 301.15 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 68.12 | - | 5.76 | - | - | - | - | 293.24 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 75.51 | - | 6.38 | - | - | - | - | 325.03 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 89.01 | - | 7.52 | - | - | - | - | 383.13 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 93.62 | - | 7.91 | - | - | - | - | 402.96 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 112.92 | - | 9.55 | - | - | - | - | 485.97 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 111.98 | - | 9.47 | - | - | - | - | 481.96 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 123.30 | - | 10.42 | - | - | - | - | 530.66 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 126.21 | - | 10.67 | - | - | - | - | 543.16 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 118.31 | - | 10.00 | - | - | - | - | 509.16 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 136.05 | - | 11.50 | - | - | - | - | 585.49 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 139.14 | - | 11.76 | - | - | - | - | 598.82 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 135.58 | - | 11.46 | - | - | - | - | 583.49 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 155.70 | - | 13.16 | - | - | - | - | 670.04 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 158.68 | - | 13.42 | - | - | - | - | 682.89 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 143.77 | - | 12.16 | - | - | - | - | 618.70 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 126.66 | - | 10.71 | - | - | - | - | 545.11 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 149.42 | - | 12.63 | - | - | - | - | 643.02 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 149.50 | - | 12.64 | - | - | - | - | 643.38 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 155.25 | - | 13.13 | - | - | - | - | 668.12 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 148.61 | - | 12.57 | - | - | - | - | 639.54 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 149.68 | - | 12.66 | - | - | - | - | 644.15 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 147.52 | - | 12.47 | - | - | - | - | 634.84 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 138.28 | - | 11.69 | - | - | - | - | 595.13 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 134.29 | - | 11.35 | - | - | - | - | 577.94 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 140.53 | - | 11.88 | - | - | - | - | 604.79 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 161.21 | - | 13.63 | - | - | - | - | 693.76 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 152.20 | - | 12.87 | - | - | - | - | 655.02 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 144.82 | - | 12.24 | - | - | - | - | 623.25 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 150.83 | - | 12.75 | - | - | - | - | 649.11 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 141.48 | - | 11.96 | - | - | - | - | 608.88 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 125.20 | - | 10.58 | - | - | - | - | 538.82 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 121.38 | - | 10.26 | - | - | - | - | 522.40 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 109.97 | - | 9.30 | - | - | - | - | 473.32 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 96.93 | - | 8.19 | - | - | - | - | 417.20 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 105.06 | - | 8.88 | - | - | - | - | 452.19 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 108.61 | - | 9.18 | - | - | - | - | 467.44 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 107.26 | - | 9.07 | - | - | - | - | 461.62 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 87.94 | - | 7.43 | - | - | - | - | 378.52 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 87.74 | - | 7.41 | - | - | - | - | 377.66 | - |
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Interval Bounds
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