Prediction 701
| Model | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
|---|---|
| Author | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso |
Description:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for validation test 2 in the state MT.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 406.69 | - | 394.15 | - | - | - | - | 419.52 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 372.75 | - | 360.85 | - | - | - | - | 384.93 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 310.57 | - | 299.89 | - | - | - | - | 321.52 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 285.20 | - | 275.05 | - | - | - | - | 295.62 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 232.21 | - | 223.20 | - | - | - | - | 241.48 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 207.61 | - | 199.17 | - | - | - | - | 216.32 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 182.74 | - | 174.89 | - | - | - | - | 190.85 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 179.75 | - | 171.98 | - | - | - | - | 187.78 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 166.57 | - | 159.13 | - | - | - | - | 174.27 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 162.07 | - | 154.74 | - | - | - | - | 169.66 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 140.00 | - | 133.26 | - | - | - | - | 147.00 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 119.11 | - | 112.95 | - | - | - | - | 125.52 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 119.74 | - | 113.56 | - | - | - | - | 126.16 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 129.12 | - | 122.68 | - | - | - | - | 135.82 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 130.92 | - | 124.43 | - | - | - | - | 137.67 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 125.85 | - | 119.50 | - | - | - | - | 132.45 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 134.58 | - | 127.98 | - | - | - | - | 141.43 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 145.07 | - | 138.19 | - | - | - | - | 152.21 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 166.80 | - | 159.35 | - | - | - | - | 174.51 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 170.35 | - | 162.81 | - | - | - | - | 178.15 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 201.87 | - | 193.56 | - | - | - | - | 210.44 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 242.31 | - | 233.08 | - | - | - | - | 251.80 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 282.80 | - | 272.70 | - | - | - | - | 293.17 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 358.29 | - | 346.67 | - | - | - | - | 370.20 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 445.99 | - | 432.73 | - | - | - | - | 459.56 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 499.66 | - | 485.43 | - | - | - | - | 514.20 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 477.96 | - | 464.11 | - | - | - | - | 492.10 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 381.69 | - | 369.62 | - | - | - | - | 394.06 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 445.39 | - | 432.71 | - | - | - | - | 458.33 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 1053.08 | - | 283.92 | - | - | - | - | 2795.14 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 1159.23 | - | 312.54 | - | - | - | - | 3076.88 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 1194.81 | - | 322.13 | - | - | - | - | 3171.31 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 1252.31 | - | 337.64 | - | - | - | - | 3323.93 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 1288.76 | - | 347.47 | - | - | - | - | 3420.66 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 1250.59 | - | 337.18 | - | - | - | - | 3319.37 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 1251.40 | - | 337.39 | - | - | - | - | 3321.51 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 1158.98 | - | 312.47 | - | - | - | - | 3076.22 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 1216.34 | - | 327.94 | - | - | - | - | 3228.46 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 1135.64 | - | 306.18 | - | - | - | - | 3014.28 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 1133.91 | - | 305.71 | - | - | - | - | 3009.69 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 1080.18 | - | 291.22 | - | - | - | - | 2867.08 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 1001.04 | - | 269.88 | - | - | - | - | 2657.04 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 1006.61 | - | 271.39 | - | - | - | - | 2671.82 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 1027.92 | - | 277.13 | - | - | - | - | 2728.39 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 1019.23 | - | 274.79 | - | - | - | - | 2705.31 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 929.76 | - | 250.66 | - | - | - | - | 2467.86 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 891.40 | - | 240.32 | - | - | - | - | 2366.06 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 829.05 | - | 223.51 | - | - | - | - | 2200.57 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 760.33 | - | 204.98 | - | - | - | - | 2018.18 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 675.43 | - | 182.08 | - | - | - | - | 1792.85 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 568.55 | - | 153.26 | - | - | - | - | 1509.20 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 474.92 | - | 128.02 | - | - | - | - | 1260.70 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 424.07 | - | 114.30 | - | - | - | - | 1125.75 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 388.68 | - | 104.76 | - | - | - | - | 1031.83 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 323.84 | - | 87.27 | - | - | - | - | 859.74 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 297.39 | - | 80.14 | - | - | - | - | 789.54 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 242.14 | - | 65.24 | - | - | - | - | 642.90 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 216.48 | - | 58.33 | - | - | - | - | 574.81 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 190.55 | - | 51.33 | - | - | - | - | 505.99 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 187.43 | - | 50.49 | - | - | - | - | 497.71 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 173.69 | - | 46.79 | - | - | - | - | 461.24 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 169.00 | - | 45.52 | - | - | - | - | 448.78 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 145.99 | - | 39.32 | - | - | - | - | 387.71 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 124.20 | - | 33.44 | - | - | - | - | 329.89 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 124.86 | - | 33.62 | - | - | - | - | 331.62 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 134.64 | - | 36.26 | - | - | - | - | 357.60 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 136.52 | - | 36.76 | - | - | - | - | 362.58 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 131.23 | - | 35.34 | - | - | - | - | 348.54 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 140.34 | - | 37.79 | - | - | - | - | 372.71 | - |
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Confidence Interval
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or line
Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
