Prediction 742
| Model | Model 2 - Weekly and yearly (rw1) components |
|---|---|
| Author | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
| ADM 1 | Tocantins |
Description:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for validation test 2 in the state TO.
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-11 | 64.89 | - | 61.81 | - | - | - | - | 68.08 | - |
| 2023-06-18 | 52.35 | - | 49.73 | - | - | - | - | 55.06 | - |
| 2023-06-25 | 43.69 | - | 41.40 | - | - | - | - | 46.07 | - |
| 2023-07-02 | 35.44 | - | 33.48 | - | - | - | - | 37.49 | - |
| 2023-07-09 | 29.63 | - | 27.90 | - | - | - | - | 31.44 | - |
| 2023-07-16 | 26.77 | - | 25.15 | - | - | - | - | 28.46 | - |
| 2023-07-23 | 24.04 | - | 22.54 | - | - | - | - | 25.61 | - |
| 2023-07-30 | 24.68 | - | 23.15 | - | - | - | - | 26.28 | - |
| 2023-08-06 | 22.08 | - | 20.66 | - | - | - | - | 23.57 | - |
| 2023-08-13 | 21.74 | - | 20.34 | - | - | - | - | 23.21 | - |
| 2023-08-20 | 19.36 | - | 18.07 | - | - | - | - | 20.73 | - |
| 2023-08-27 | 16.81 | - | 15.63 | - | - | - | - | 18.06 | - |
| 2023-09-03 | 15.78 | - | 14.65 | - | - | - | - | 16.98 | - |
| 2023-09-10 | 16.41 | - | 15.25 | - | - | - | - | 17.64 | - |
| 2023-09-17 | 16.47 | - | 15.30 | - | - | - | - | 17.70 | - |
| 2023-09-24 | 16.81 | - | 15.63 | - | - | - | - | 18.05 | - |
| 2023-10-01 | 16.26 | - | 15.11 | - | - | - | - | 17.48 | - |
| 2023-10-08 | 17.62 | - | 16.41 | - | - | - | - | 18.91 | - |
| 2023-10-15 | 21.23 | - | 19.85 | - | - | - | - | 22.68 | - |
| 2023-10-22 | 24.73 | - | 23.20 | - | - | - | - | 26.33 | - |
| 2023-10-29 | 30.45 | - | 28.69 | - | - | - | - | 32.30 | - |
| 2023-11-05 | 35.81 | - | 33.83 | - | - | - | - | 37.87 | - |
| 2023-11-12 | 44.02 | - | 41.72 | - | - | - | - | 46.41 | - |
| 2023-11-19 | 53.41 | - | 50.76 | - | - | - | - | 56.17 | - |
| 2023-11-26 | 70.31 | - | 67.03 | - | - | - | - | 73.71 | - |
| 2023-12-03 | 81.97 | - | 78.26 | - | - | - | - | 85.81 | - |
| 2023-12-10 | 88.02 | - | 84.09 | - | - | - | - | 92.08 | - |
| 2023-12-17 | 65.54 | - | 62.44 | - | - | - | - | 68.76 | - |
| 2023-12-24 | 59.36 | - | 56.51 | - | - | - | - | 62.32 | - |
| 2023-12-31 | 212.87 | - | 12.35 | - | - | - | - | 1016.30 | - |
| 2024-01-07 | 238.46 | - | 13.83 | - | - | - | - | 1138.49 | - |
| 2024-01-14 | 261.42 | - | 15.16 | - | - | - | - | 1248.09 | - |
| 2024-01-21 | 279.55 | - | 16.22 | - | - | - | - | 1334.64 | - |
| 2024-01-28 | 310.98 | - | 18.04 | - | - | - | - | 1484.69 | - |
| 2024-02-04 | 318.72 | - | 18.49 | - | - | - | - | 1521.65 | - |
| 2024-02-11 | 322.01 | - | 18.68 | - | - | - | - | 1537.34 | - |
| 2024-02-18 | 307.62 | - | 17.84 | - | - | - | - | 1468.66 | - |
| 2024-02-25 | 304.11 | - | 17.64 | - | - | - | - | 1451.91 | - |
| 2024-03-03 | 284.86 | - | 16.52 | - | - | - | - | 1359.98 | - |
| 2024-03-10 | 296.35 | - | 17.19 | - | - | - | - | 1414.84 | - |
| 2024-03-17 | 296.38 | - | 17.19 | - | - | - | - | 1415.00 | - |
| 2024-03-24 | 277.91 | - | 16.12 | - | - | - | - | 1326.80 | - |
| 2024-03-31 | 287.42 | - | 16.67 | - | - | - | - | 1372.20 | - |
| 2024-04-07 | 282.33 | - | 16.38 | - | - | - | - | 1347.95 | - |
| 2024-04-14 | 255.63 | - | 14.83 | - | - | - | - | 1220.43 | - |
| 2024-04-21 | 259.07 | - | 15.03 | - | - | - | - | 1236.88 | - |
| 2024-04-28 | 252.20 | - | 14.63 | - | - | - | - | 1204.10 | - |
| 2024-05-05 | 236.37 | - | 13.71 | - | - | - | - | 1128.51 | - |
| 2024-05-12 | 216.38 | - | 12.55 | - | - | - | - | 1033.08 | - |
| 2024-05-19 | 187.24 | - | 10.86 | - | - | - | - | 893.94 | - |
| 2024-05-26 | 159.94 | - | 9.28 | - | - | - | - | 763.62 | - |
| 2024-06-02 | 138.82 | - | 8.05 | - | - | - | - | 662.80 | - |
| 2024-06-09 | 124.15 | - | 7.20 | - | - | - | - | 592.75 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 100.16 | - | 5.81 | - | - | - | - | 478.21 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 83.59 | - | 4.85 | - | - | - | - | 399.12 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 67.81 | - | 3.93 | - | - | - | - | 323.79 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 56.68 | - | 3.29 | - | - | - | - | 270.67 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 51.21 | - | 2.97 | - | - | - | - | 244.55 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 46.00 | - | 2.67 | - | - | - | - | 219.65 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 47.22 | - | 2.74 | - | - | - | - | 225.48 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 42.25 | - | 2.45 | - | - | - | - | 201.74 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 41.60 | - | 2.41 | - | - | - | - | 198.66 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 37.05 | - | 2.15 | - | - | - | - | 176.91 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 32.17 | - | 1.86 | - | - | - | - | 153.64 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 30.20 | - | 1.75 | - | - | - | - | 144.22 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 31.40 | - | 1.82 | - | - | - | - | 149.95 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 31.51 | - | 1.83 | - | - | - | - | 150.48 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 32.16 | - | 1.86 | - | - | - | - | 153.59 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 31.11 | - | 1.80 | - | - | - | - | 148.58 | - |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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